Washout Sunday

A bit of a so so day today, with the weather seeming to be having an affect all round. Only one race meeting and that's over the water at Navan, with Exeter now advertising water polo. if I was looking at any bets i would keep the following in mind: Honey Bach, Bonisland, with a lay on Busty Brown.

Final Grand Prix of the season, which fittingly will determine the drivers championship. Normally i would have backed Hamilton for the race, but it seems that Alonso may have sacrificed some speed for a wet weather set up yesterday, he also has his team mate sat on Vettel's exhaust from the start so it looks like it could be an interesting race, toom many people will want to win it, but Vettel will not want to do anything silly to compromise his race.  Watched an interesting interview with Schumacher yesterday, quite insightful if you get the chance to watch. Starts around the 19 minute mark - www.bbc.co.uk/i/b01p3s9s/

Yesterday's rugby has its consequences, with a certain All Black hooker almost certainly will be missing a few matches followings his right hook on Bradley Davies. And least said about that bloody French referee again the better!! There is also a now a vacancy for the Scotland job  with Andy Robinson having thrown in the towel following the Tonga defeat. When will people understand that there are very few easy games in International Rugby these days.

In the cricket, it looks like England may actually get a result, some exciting batting from KP, some solid batting from Cook, and some intelligent bowling from Panesar/Swann. Should be enough to get a result tonight/tomorrow morning.

Some pretty good football games today, and in particular looking forward to the Swansea v Liverpool game. both sides trying to implement their new manager's systems. Both sides like to score and both have a habit of conceding. Both sides like to play football as well as numerous personal cross overs with ex-managers and players, so a lot of pride also at stake.  Below are a couple of basic stats, with the best odds of some recommended bets.

League Position:
Swansea 10
Liverpool 11

Goals
Swansea
Av Goals Scored at Home = 1.7
Av Goals Conceded at Home = 1.5

Liverpool
Av Goals Scored Away = 1.8
Av Goals Conceded Away  = 1.8

O2.5
Swansea
Av Home Games O2.5 = 83.3%

Liverpool
Av Away Games O2.5 = 60%

Top Scorers
Swansea:
Michu (7)
Dyer (3)

Liverpool:
Suarez (9)
Gerard (2)

Clean Sheets
Swansea at Home = 1 game from 6
Liverpool Away  = 0 games from 5

Streaks
Swansea Home Game Since a loss: 3
Liverpool Away Game Since a loss: 4

Corners:
Swansea Av = 8.1
Liverpool Av = 5.4

Best Odds:
To win: Swansea 3.8 Liverpool 2.15 Draw 3.6
First Goals Scorer: Suarez 6.0 Michu 9.0 Graham 9.3 Gerard 11.5 Enrique 21
Corners: Over 11 2.0
O2.5: 1.82
Correct Score: Liverpool 3-1 19.0 Draw 2-2 15.0, Liverpool 2-0 13.0, Swansea 2-1 13.0

Saturday's Tips & Trades

Very quick note with just today's selections.  Weather rubbish in the south of the country so watch the going at Ascot.

EW
12.55 Haydock - Black Thunder
1.00 Gowran Park - Blacklough
1.40 Ascot - Romance Dance

Back
2.35 Gowran Park - Hidden Cyclone
3.50 Ascot - The Nephew

Lay
1.40 Ascot - Pyleigh Lass
6.50 Wolverhampton - Gung Ho Jack

Back To Lay
3.10 Gowran Park - Spot Fine
3.20 Ascot - Tanks For That

Home Win
Brighton
Valladolid
Rennes

Away Win
Tranmere
Arsenal
Heracles

O2.5
Hull
SC Bastia

Footy Trade
Malaga v Valencia: Important to get some early insurance out of 0-0/U1.5
O2.5 Back £15
U3.5 Lay £15
2-0 £5
0-2 £3
1-1 £5

Punchestown v Cheltenham - Sunday's Tips & Trades

Well its not just Wales that are rubbish against the Southern hemisphere sides,  I know they are match fit, but we should at least be competitive, there are times where I feel the visitors haven't really got into top gear. Some of the decision making also by key players was very questionable.

Just watching a bit of the cricket, with England finally putting up a bit of resistance against the slow bowlers of India. If they England get away with a draw then it will be a battle well fought.

Quieter day on the sporting front today, with a bit of quality over the water. Good to see Hurricane Fly back n the track, will be interesting to see how he goes. May be worth keeping an eye out for Magical Island, at Fontwell, fancy a decent run. Also may have a closer look at Glam Gerry and Clondaw Knight at Cheltenham for an EW selection.

The footy turned up a good couple of games yesterday, with a fair amount of goals split between the divisions. Although I do have to say 'what the feck was Adebayor playing at yesterday' talk about letting your side down.  How much longer for Mark Hughes at QPR, worrying sign when your chairman comes out on twitter and comments on the game!! Fairly quiet on the football front, and Sunderland have an awful lot to do this afternoon, really poor record in front of goal with Fletcher being the only bright spot. In the Championship sees one the dirtiest rivalries with Millwall v Leeds, couple of goals there for me.


Back
1.40 Punchestown - Back in Focus
3.50 Punchestown - Rough Justice


EW
1.45 Cheltenham - Well Sharp
2.50 Cheltenham - Snap Tie

Lay
2.05 Fontwell - River D'Or
2.45 Punchestown - Courtncatcher

Home Win
Inter Milan
Siena

Away Win

FC Twente 1965

Atletico Madrid

O2.5

Millwall FC

Footy Trade
Fiorentina v Atalanta. I've got this game down as being quite tight, but would be no suprise to see a few goals going in when the deadlock is finally broken. So the need to scalp the U1.5/0-0 is important.
0-1 £2
2-0 £4
1-1- £7
O2.5 £20
U3.5 Lay £15

Good Luck

Bring on the All Blacks.... Today's Tips & Trades

Few words today, busy, busy busy. And still getting over another poor Welsh performance last night. But hey, not to worry, we'll bounce back next week, its only the All Blacks!!!!!!

Good week last week with the horses, always nice when a 200/1 comes home.... Several good races today, but watch the going, some heavy rain in parts overnight, so some very tacky ground possible. Watch out for the finishing times to get a truer view of the going.

The Grand Prix moves to a new venue over in the good ole USA. looks an interesting track, and it sounds as though the Red Bull has settled in well.  Looking forward to seeing the first corner action tomorrow, also likely to see the safety car I reckon with so many unknowns.

Football seen what is debatable one of the best scored this week. Zlatan can be a right moody git, but when he is on his game he's not too bad. Does strike me though as somebody who plays for the money rather than the team/shirt. Couple of decent derbies around today. AVB will be looking to continue Arsenal's poor run, and with the amount of doubtful players the Gunners have it is definitely possible. The mighty Pars take on the neighbours, they need to win after last weeks blip, but still some hassles going on behind the scenes, so do worry about how that affects them.

Anyway off to do some of my chores, then settle down for some quiet afternoons sport, have a bank filling day.


Back
12.55 Uttoxeter - Global Warming (watch out for market drift)
1.30 Uttoxeter - Joseph Mercer
2.25 Wetherby - Mr Moss
3.50 Punchestown - Clondaw Court

EW
2.35 Cheltenham - Nadiya de la Vega
3.10 Uttoxeter - Eyre Apparent

EW Trixie
1.30 Utto - Flying Column
2.55 Wetherby - Deise Dynamo
3.45 Uttoxeter - Up and Go

Lay
3.05 Cheltenham - Lovcen
3.25 Wetherby - Fleet Dawn

Back to Lay
12.25 Punchestown - Tarquinus
12.55 Uttoxeter  - Gorey Lane
3.05 Cheltenham - Bouggler


Home Win
Port Vale
Rochdale

Away Win
Notts County
Saint Etienne

O2.5
Arsenal
Reading
Chesterfield

Footy Trade
Man City v Aston Villa. This game should have home win written all over it, but as always be careful. Danger here is 1-0, option to take AUQ instead of O3.5, but you may need to cover off a couple of other scores, adjust as you see fit.
Man City Lay £30
2-0 £5
2-1 £5
3-0 £4
O3.5 £20

Good Luck

Welsh Woes With Sunday Tips & Trades

Well a pretty poor performance from Wales yesterday.  It should have been no surprise that the Argies would be up for a good game, they play against the top sides in the world, and their players are spread amongst some of the top leagues in the world.  what was disappointing was the lack of Welsh application and solid leadership/direction on the field.  I accept that there was a young half back partnership, and that may be the way the future goes, but where was the support around them to help there decision making. Voyle is supposed to be the link that helps the game flow between the forwards and backs, Priestland is the guy that controls the speed of the game, but to be honest I struggle to see any impact they made on the game.  personally I would prefer to see mike Phillips on from the start with Voyle coming on for the last 15 or 20 minutes. the pack done their bit but were badly let done y the backs and lack of solid impact tackles and runs. Play like that for the rest of the Autumn and we will pay a very big price. At stake is are Lions selections, the seeding/draw for the World Cup as well as the confidence for the 6 Nations. It's going to be a tough month. Big improvement needed!!

Today see the great team that is the All Blacks take on a confident Scottish side. A good game is install, and the Scots have it in their heads that they will push the Kiwis all the way, my belief is that the All Blacks will go through the gears as needed and should be able to deal with the Scots with ease. There may be a bit of value in siding with Scotland in the handicap.

Old Arsene must be spitting feathers after another poor performance, and missing a last minute penalty. What is going on at Arsenal at the moment, pretty good individuals, good manager, state of the art facilities, but they seem to struggle on the teamwork front and the mental aptitude side, and key players seem to want or need to leave.  Are there things going on in the background, are the financials restraints cutting deeper than thought? Two managers that must surely be looking up the address of their local job centre are Mark Hughes and Nigel Adkins. but should they be?  2 teams with various challenges, mainly off the park, and with boards that want results, but what they should be doing is providing stability and giving the squads reassurance and backing. Glad to see Fergie time in play again, got to hand it to him, he ensures his team fights to the end.

Is there any value left in the Chelsea/Liverpool game? O2.5 is at 1.73, Liverpool at 4.0 & Chelsea at 2.00, BTTS at 1.6, struggling to see any stand out odds. Liverpool have a fairly decent record at Stamford Bridge, but i worry about their young side, and Chelsea do have a creaky defence. There maybe some value in laying HT 0-0.  Fancy a few goals at Maine Road, but again little value to be had, might look at trading CS 2-2, 1-1 with U2.5. In the Newcastle game, I would be looking at a Newcastle O2.5 double.

The one performance that stood out yesterday was that of Overturn, a excellent display, jumping at with confidence and at speed. It was mentioned how would he react when he makes a mistake, surely the question is will he make a mistake? An exciting all round performer.

A bit lighter on the racing front today with a full jumps card either side of the water. Jim Best has an interesting runner at Ffos Las further enhanced with the booking of AP McCoy, only concern is unproven on the going. Nicky Henderson also has an interest that may be worth watching in the 2.30 at Ffos Las, but does need to improve on last seasons performances. Also at Ffos Las I had Velator down as a lay, but I have an itch that says leave it alone, an up & coming trainer, with a tidy jock onboard, coming back from a long time off. NR's starting to mess up the cards already to be watchful.


Back
1.10 Market Rasen - Don't Take Me Alive
1.45 Navan - So Young

EW
1245 Navan - Crouching Harry
1.45 Navan - Whatuthink
3.45 Limerock - Jadaneli

Value Lay
1.40 Market Rasen -Mr Watson

Home Win Acc @2.0
Porto, Ath Madrid, PSV

Away Win
Napoli
Ajax
Benfica

O2.5
Olhanense
Levante

Rugby Union
All Blacks to win (HCap -26)
All Blacks Winning Margin
11 - 20 @ 4's
21-25 @ 6.5
26-30 @ 7
Look to trade off as the game progresses.

Footy Trade
Chievo v Udinese.  This should be a low scoring tight, so should be no excuses to scalp some cover on the 0-0/U1.5 markets. If 2-2 goes about 30's before HT think about having £2 cover on. danger is 2-0 home win. Watch the scores and make sure you balance off against the O2.5.
0-0 £3.50
0-1 £4
0-2 £5
1-0 £3.5
1-1 £6
O2.5 £17

C'mon Wales - Saturday's Tips & Trades

Running late again today, long week......  Couple of decent meetings on today, but all with variable going so just take a little care. one of the runners that I couldn't seem to get my head round was Relax at Kelso, only ran yesterday, not finishing to well, but is off again today over 3f longer, does the trainer know something? - hold that thought just become a NR!!! Another horse of interest is Bollin Greta at Doncaster, tidy jockey, low weight, big price, good be a decent EW shout. Watch out for AP in the last at Sandown.

Footy sees another fairly full card, but will the goals be there after another busy midweek set of fixtures? Time will tell. In Spain , look at Zaragoza to win by 1 for some value.

In the rugby, expecting to see some decent games, think the Boks should overturn the Irish, and the Ozzies will have a good game in Paris. The value is with the Argies, would like to see Wales win, obviously, but the Argies will be no push overs, some value to be had using the handicaps.

Back
1.05 Naas - Hisaabaat
3.50 Kelso - Lucky Sunny


EW
1.10 Wincanton - Sum Laff
2.15 Wincanton - Aegean Dawn
2.35 Doncaster - Retrieve
4.05 Sandown - Florida Quays

EW Double
3.50 Naas - City Slicker
3.00 Sandown - Scorched Son

Lay
1.30 Kelso - Southern Leinster
2.40 Kelso - Kings Grey

Home Win 
Yeovil
Brentford
Blackburn

Away Win
Dortmund
Port Vale
Gillingham

02.5
SC Bastia
Reading

Footy trade
Stoke v QPR.  Cover 0-2 if QPR score first, scalp some insurance on 0-0/U1.5. Look to grren up at 2-0 0r 1-1. Danger is 1-0
0-1 £3
1-1 £7
2-0 £5
O2.5 £25

Sunday Tips and Trades

Just a quick couple of lines today, time is against me.  not a bad day yesterday with some decent performances from the horses, hope some were on Trustan Times, pretty solid performance.  Footy trades seem to be struggling a little, may need to review selection method.

Today sees Liverpool take on Newcastle this afternoon. Personally I think Liverpool are too short especially when taking recent results into account. Some value may be had by backing the reds to nil, or Liverpool win & U2.5, QPR take on Reading, my money is on QPR, with back up on O2.5.

What is going on at Red Bull? How can they not have enough fuel in the car for Vettel, surely a couple of litres will not make that much difference? This cock up has thrown the race wide open, Hamilton is quite short, and fancy a small lay. Value may be had by backing Button for a podium finish. Also what an incentive for Alonso, expect him to put in a cracking race.

Some low level racing today, so be careful, and watch for some sleepers getting a run in. I see Albert Bridge is taking a bit of a caning over in Leopardstown, so may be one to watch. Another one to look out for is Hawkridge King at Huntington, easily treated last time out.

Back
1.25 Leopardstown - Mourani
4.30 Cork - Goodoldhonkytonk

EW
1.30 Carlisle - Big Occasion

Lay
3.30 Huntington - Stop the Show

Home Win
Bologna

O2.5
Lyon
Bologna

Footy Trade
Sampdoria v Atlanta
O2.5 £20 - may be as well to drip feed into over the first 15 minutes
1-0 £4
1-1 £5
2-0 £4
Scalp 0-0/U1.5 for cover, if Atlanta first score cover off 0-2

Saturday is for Sport.....

Well I think it's fair to say that the sponsors of the League Cup got their moneys worth this week, goals, extra time and more goals. An enjoyable watch, whilst also getting the change to see some of the youngsters getting a game. mind you I don't think I would like to be sat next to the young Man Utd centre back by the time Fergie had finished his debrief.

A cracking day's sport ahead, with plenty for all tastes. In Abu Dhabi McLaren appear to be struggling to get the right set up for their tyres, Vettel is in a good place, but Alonso and Ferrari seem to be keeping tight lipped about some improvements they are introducing   They seemed to have out foxed all last week with the tweak they made on their gearing. If I was to wager a pound then it would likely be Alonso/Vettel 1-2, that could change come qualifying.

Some cracking races around today. The top trainers seem to have spread their charges far and wide, when Paul Nichols has a runner at Down Royal its worth a second glance, same when Donald McCain send s one to Ayr. interesting little race in the 3.50 at Ayr, with the Lucinda Russell Horse up against the McCain horse, on paper a tight affair and should be worth a couple of minutes out to watch. The Charlie Hall Chase throws up some old favourites, my money is on Time for Rupert to come good. Look out for Trustan Times at Wetherby, nothing solid, but fancy him to run well at a decent price.  McCoy reckons he will be back after his incident yesterday, after all what is a few stitches and broken teeth between friends!!!! I'd be off for weeks!

A few people moaning about the call off of the New York marathon. Are they stupid, any sane and sensible individual could see that it was going to have to be cancelled. The locals have a few bigger things to think about at the moment.  How long before some runner files a law suit for adverse stress due to al the training they had completed, aaarrrgggghhhhh!!!

Man Utd v Arsenal the lunchtime game, sound be  a decent match, with both teams having a bit to prove, and some obvious weaknesses at the moment. I'd like to say I fancy some goals at Swansea v Chelsea, but my recent record on this has been rubbish!! Bayern seem a little big in tonight's game at Hamburg, same as Hearts at lowly Dundee. My  local side Dunfermline, like to do things the hard way, they have a young team playing well, sat top of the league, and then the board goes and splits, with admission of a cash flow issue, and rumours are rife about administration, but has the chairman says, we've been here before so lets move on!!

Back
3.00 Down Royal- Cristal Bonus
4.05 Down Royal - Directors Forum
4,15 Ascot - Puffin Billy

EW
1250 Ascot - Ivor's King
3.05 Newmarket - Hajras
3.10 Ascot - Baile Anrai
3.40 Newmarket - Entangle

Lay
2.10 Ayr - Daasij (be careful of market support)
3.40 Newmarket - Dance & Dance

Home Wins
Malaga
Valenciennes
MK Dons

Away Wins
Utrecht
Crawley

Back to Lay
3.10 Ascot - Nataani
3.45 Ascot - Doctor David

O2.5
Fulham
Bolton
West Ham

Footy Trade
West Ham v Man City
U2.5 Back £20
2-2 £5
1-3 £5
U4.5 Lay £40