Welsh Woes With Sunday Tips & Trades

Well a pretty poor performance from Wales yesterday.  It should have been no surprise that the Argies would be up for a good game, they play against the top sides in the world, and their players are spread amongst some of the top leagues in the world.  what was disappointing was the lack of Welsh application and solid leadership/direction on the field.  I accept that there was a young half back partnership, and that may be the way the future goes, but where was the support around them to help there decision making. Voyle is supposed to be the link that helps the game flow between the forwards and backs, Priestland is the guy that controls the speed of the game, but to be honest I struggle to see any impact they made on the game.  personally I would prefer to see mike Phillips on from the start with Voyle coming on for the last 15 or 20 minutes. the pack done their bit but were badly let done y the backs and lack of solid impact tackles and runs. Play like that for the rest of the Autumn and we will pay a very big price. At stake is are Lions selections, the seeding/draw for the World Cup as well as the confidence for the 6 Nations. It's going to be a tough month. Big improvement needed!!

Today see the great team that is the All Blacks take on a confident Scottish side. A good game is install, and the Scots have it in their heads that they will push the Kiwis all the way, my belief is that the All Blacks will go through the gears as needed and should be able to deal with the Scots with ease. There may be a bit of value in siding with Scotland in the handicap.

Old Arsene must be spitting feathers after another poor performance, and missing a last minute penalty. What is going on at Arsenal at the moment, pretty good individuals, good manager, state of the art facilities, but they seem to struggle on the teamwork front and the mental aptitude side, and key players seem to want or need to leave.  Are there things going on in the background, are the financials restraints cutting deeper than thought? Two managers that must surely be looking up the address of their local job centre are Mark Hughes and Nigel Adkins. but should they be?  2 teams with various challenges, mainly off the park, and with boards that want results, but what they should be doing is providing stability and giving the squads reassurance and backing. Glad to see Fergie time in play again, got to hand it to him, he ensures his team fights to the end.

Is there any value left in the Chelsea/Liverpool game? O2.5 is at 1.73, Liverpool at 4.0 & Chelsea at 2.00, BTTS at 1.6, struggling to see any stand out odds. Liverpool have a fairly decent record at Stamford Bridge, but i worry about their young side, and Chelsea do have a creaky defence. There maybe some value in laying HT 0-0.  Fancy a few goals at Maine Road, but again little value to be had, might look at trading CS 2-2, 1-1 with U2.5. In the Newcastle game, I would be looking at a Newcastle O2.5 double.

The one performance that stood out yesterday was that of Overturn, a excellent display, jumping at with confidence and at speed. It was mentioned how would he react when he makes a mistake, surely the question is will he make a mistake? An exciting all round performer.

A bit lighter on the racing front today with a full jumps card either side of the water. Jim Best has an interesting runner at Ffos Las further enhanced with the booking of AP McCoy, only concern is unproven on the going. Nicky Henderson also has an interest that may be worth watching in the 2.30 at Ffos Las, but does need to improve on last seasons performances. Also at Ffos Las I had Velator down as a lay, but I have an itch that says leave it alone, an up & coming trainer, with a tidy jock onboard, coming back from a long time off. NR's starting to mess up the cards already to be watchful.


Back
1.10 Market Rasen - Don't Take Me Alive
1.45 Navan - So Young

EW
1245 Navan - Crouching Harry
1.45 Navan - Whatuthink
3.45 Limerock - Jadaneli

Value Lay
1.40 Market Rasen -Mr Watson

Home Win Acc @2.0
Porto, Ath Madrid, PSV

Away Win
Napoli
Ajax
Benfica

O2.5
Olhanense
Levante

Rugby Union
All Blacks to win (HCap -26)
All Blacks Winning Margin
11 - 20 @ 4's
21-25 @ 6.5
26-30 @ 7
Look to trade off as the game progresses.

Footy Trade
Chievo v Udinese.  This should be a low scoring tight, so should be no excuses to scalp some cover on the 0-0/U1.5 markets. If 2-2 goes about 30's before HT think about having £2 cover on. danger is 2-0 home win. Watch the scores and make sure you balance off against the O2.5.
0-0 £3.50
0-1 £4
0-2 £5
1-0 £3.5
1-1 £6
O2.5 £17