Flipping Fat Fingers & Today's Tips & Trades

Do you know I said yesterday was going to be a funny old day, and so it turned out to be!!The horses didn't run too bad, and there was enough trading opportunities too ensure no losses. And if you didn't make enough green out of the football you need to revisit your staking and thought process!!

So what did I manage to do?  I completed a move on my computer that I have done 1000's of times before, but why was that such a point to mention, why? Because I managed to wipe all my profit plus some more, i made the mistake of trading whilst having had a couple of glasses of wine (very nice wine as it happens). I changed screens on my software and automatically pressed the relevant keys as is the norm, what I hadn't noticed was that the software was slightly slower than normal, and I ending up backing a footy score that was now completely impossible to achieve!!! Bang went my days profit plus a % of my bank!!!!  I would have been just as well stood on a street corner handing out tenners to passers by.

How annoying is this? Very, but please learn from my mistake and bloody incompetence, patience,wine and trading obviously don't mix. On reflection I couldn't work out why things were slower than normal, when reviewed I now realise I had other pieces if software running that I didn't really need. So to quote somebody "know your limits!!" Or to be more precise the limits of your PC/laptop.

It has forced me to take 5 minutes to sit down and re-evaluate my set up and structures, so not a bad thing, bloody expensive way to do it though.

Anybody else think that there is something missing from the Ryder Cup? (Apart from European points!!) it seems a sad thing to say but I think the Americans want it more, it seems to be a bit more than just a round of golf. The Europeans aren't pressing or applying any real pressure, surprising when you think many of them play on the US tour. If the Europeans turn things around today I would be astounded, I know they say its not over till the fat lady sings, but I can definitely hear her tweaking those vocal chords!!

Good to see Liverpool get a first win under their belts, and whilst I appreciate it was against a poor Norwich side, it should breed some confidence. Good to see some of the youngsters coming through and it shows some hope for the future, but they need to sort out their defence, they are being left so exposed by stupid mistakes. Must admit I had to smile at AVB's reaction at the end of the Old Trafford game, it obviously meant a lot to him, & as for Fergie moaning about extra time - come on Man Utd have had their fair share of it in the paste. In private Fergie is a lovely, warm, funny guy, but he's got to stop the moaning at times in front if the cameras.

Couple of derbies on the footy cards, Derby v Forest looks an interesting one, neither team know how to keep a clean sheet at the moment, both need the points, Derby are overpriced in my view. Villa v WBA, are villa still she'll shocked from last weeks mauling by Southampton, and does Lambert really know how wake this sleeping giant of a club, I don't think so. WBA are well organised and seem fairly solid. More than likely look at backing WBA DNB.

Sampdoria v Napoli has the makings of a good game, newly promoted Sampdoria are progressing well, and Napoli are unbeaten in nine, not expecting a lot of goals, maybe a Dutch of some low scores, with a Napoli bias and some cover on O2.5.

Not a lot of quality racing around,but plenty of 2yo races so some to watch for the future? expect a lot of NR's with the changing weather conditions, I am surprised to see Mussel burgh going as good, with the amount of rain around the are would have expected a softer going, may change later.

Back
2.40 Curragh - Boston Rocker

EW
5.30 Epsom - Dr Red Eye
2.55 Clonmel - Sizing Machine

Lay
5.30 Epsom - Ghostwing
5.15 Musselburgh - Here Now and Why

Footy Trade
Espanyol v Ath Madrid - No clean sheet from Espanyol yet this season  Athletico scoring for fun (cue 0-0!!) weighted for an away win, but be careful the home side do have the ability of putting in a performance  Low risk trade, scalp some U1.5 for insurance, if early goals look at laying U3.5 or U4.5

1-1 £5
1-2 £4
0-2 £3
O2.5 £20

Maritimo LTD

Saturday's Picks and Trades

Why do I think its going to be a funny old day today......

Referees in the news again I see last weekend, I may have be slightly biased against Man Utd, but If Shelvey's tackle was a red card then Jonny Evans should have also walked at least twice during that game.  Consistency is al the fans want, but it seems a bit like the holy grail at the moment. Steve Kean finally sees sense and walks away, how he stood the personal abuse and lack of backing from the board I do not know, personally I'm glad he has told them to stuff it. Couple of decent games this weekend, why can't Arsenal turn Chelsea over this weekend, Liverpool to get their first win at Carrow Road, and how about a bag full of goals at Reading? and by the way my local team Dunfermline are still progressing really well, very unlucky to lose to a 93rd minute goal against Aberdeen in the week, and are available at 2.1 for today and 3.0 for the league......

The way the golf is going looks like I won't be wasting any sleep watching the climax, the USA have got off to a flyer, and have momentum and the home crowd behind them, it will take a special European performance to pull this back, but stranger things have happened.

Well Lewis Hamilton has finally made the jump, please tell me why the fastest man this season in the the fastest car, which has won 5 races this season, would opt for a car that has just won once in three years? Is it all about the money? Is Jenson really that much of a threat? Has Ross Brawn got something up his sleeve with the Mercedes? Have McLaren finally seen sense and realised that to continue to spend the millions it does on racing, cannot really be justified these day? Or does he just need a change? If Schumacher has finally retired that good luck and thanks, may not have been everybody's favourite at times, but can you fault his focus and want to win?

Nice to see a bit of jumps action today,  although I understand that there is a small flat meeting going on elsewhere in the country today, with some oversized pony being given a run out...(only joking, I do like Frankel).  Crap weather across most of the country tomorrow, so expect going to be all over the place again.

Exercising the advantage that I have over the bookies today, hat is I don't have to get involved in each and every race if I don't feel its right. One track is Heavy, not touching unless something really stands out, and that is not today.  Chester, I don't mind watching but have not really had much success, most horses that i pick out there, seem to do the exact opposite of what I expect to happen.  I have a small itch about Rayhani at Market Rasen today, has the past history to run well, but seems to have been out of sorts recently, is fit and has been turned out pretty quickly again.  A big price but may be worth a quid each way.  Watch for NR's coming out quite late to mess up any frames.

Remember to watch for the results/scores and react appropriately, protect you stakes and you bank. Don't be afraid to take a small red to protect yourself against the possibility of a larger red. Do your research and manage you bank. And a wrong pick doesn't have to mean that it is a losing trade, have a plan...

Back
1.40 Market Rasen - Favours Brave
5.25 Newmarket - Trader Jacks

EW
1.40 Market Rasen - Rayhani
2.10 Market Rasen - Kians Delight
3.00 Newmarket - Chachamaidee
5.05 Market Rasen- Third of the Third

Lay
3.05 Navan - Chasing Shadows
3.55 Market Rasen - Halogen (value lay)

Footy:
Dortmund v Broussia Munchengladbach, great name!!.  Dortmund have won the last couple of matched against BMG at home, and they do like to score goals.  Dangers here are a low score, so if no goals by HT look to start minimising potential losses, 3-1 keeps the bank manager happy, with it still be early in the season this could be a game at half stakes whilst keeping a close eye to scores. Lay off scores as the goals go in to at least recover stake, watch AUQ stick a quid on if gets big enough.
Dortmund Lay £20
U3.5 Lay £25
1-0 £2
2-0 £3
2-1 £3
3-0 £4
3-1 £4

Nantes v Lens LTD
Huddersfield v Watford LTD
Hearts v Killie LTD
Norwich v Lpool Back Liverpool
Nice v Bastia Back O2.5
Bolton v C Palace Back O2.5
Wolves v Sheff Wed Back O2.5
Reading v Newcastle Back O3.5

Good Luck

Sunday Tips - Gambling or Trading?

While yesterday shows the difference between gambling and trading. If you were a gambler you would have been pretty cheesed off( & down a few quid) today, but if you had followed yesterdays results as they came in and had set sensible limits you should have traded yourself out for either a small green or a scratch.

A couple of freakish results shows why you need to have contingency plans and pay attention to what you are doing.  Who would have picked out Barnsley to win 5-0, did you spot Southampton overturning  Villa side leading 1-0? If you did, can I have next weeks lottery numbers.

Horses were a mixed bunch, with NR's not helping, and one that I took out of yesterday was Taayel, very unlucky, got bumped/blocked a couple of times then came steaming through to take the place, will watch for in the near future.  Today sees an interesting issue at Uttoxeter with Lucinda Russell send 2 all the way down from Perth, I personally thing that its for the benefit of Lord Redsgirth, has a decent claimers on-board and if you look at his last run hopefully he would have picked up a couple of pointers on how he should be ridden.

Today seems a decent sports day, hopefully the footy at Anfield matches up to the build up, I would be surprised if both sets of fans do not behave, Rodgers needs a win, and quickly, but as wise as Fergie is, there will be no room for sentiment. So both teams going for the win for all the right reasons, fully expect to see some goals.

Singapore hosts the latest Grand Prix, I have gone for a lay of Hamilton, the price is too short in my view. The track is tight and not many overtaking opportunities, however safety cars are virtually guaranteed and 110% concentration is needed for the full 2 hours, so i believe there should should be some trading opportunities here. Alonso has the experience to get himself out of any trouble, and the heart to fight where needed, but can the car last the full distance, podium price is worth a couple of quid. I think the Red Bull will be out to prove a few things, along with an improving Mercedes, so looking forward to a decent race.

Looking ahead there's a decent midweek card for the football, so something to break up the week with, Man u v Newcastle should be a cracking game, any how good luck what ever you do, but please remeber to protect the bank and have a fall back position.

EW
1.40 Uttoxeter - Momkinzain
3.40 Uttoxeter - Lord Redsgirth
4.45 Gowran Park - Toufan Express

Back
2.10 Uttoexeter - River D'Or
2.30 Plumpton - Khazium
3.00 Plumpton - Defaiothesdream
4.15 Gowran Park - Trading Leather
(possible Yankee, trading as you go)

Lay
2.40 Uttoxeter - Shallow Bay
4.30 Plumpton - Dipity Doo Dah

Footy Trades
Ath Madrid v Valladollid
looking for some goals in this game, Madrid have been some quite prolific scorers so 3-1 would be the dream result. Lay off the scores to play down the red side. Dangers are a low scoring game or an away win. Stats show that most of the goals should come in the 2nd half, so may drip feed the U3.5 lay, and possible take advantage of U4.5 lay, whilst gaining some scalping insurance on the low scores.

Lay Ath Madrid £20
Lay U3.5 £25
1-0 £3
2-0 £4
2-1 £3
3-0 £4
3-1 £5

Back O2.5
Liverpool V Man Utd
TSG v Hannover

LTD
PSV v Feynood
Marsielle v Evian

Both Teams to Score
Aberdeen v Motherwell - Yes

T20/20
England v India lay both teams @ 1.6

F1
Podium Finish - back Alonso
Value Lay - Hamilton to Win

Saturday Picks, before the rain comes

Just a quick couple of lines today, running late and feeling the effects of a nice bottle of red...

Champions League proper got off to a cracking start this week, and what a game the Man City game was, watched the game as a neutral and fell asleep in the first half, but was wide awake for the second half.  And who can fault Joe Hart for his words, his defence certainly need a long hard look at themselves, some of the defending was Sunday League.  Liverpool battered some Young Boys on the Thursday, I hear the police are investigating!!!

Anybody catch the documentary on Liverpool on C5, very informative and time will tell either a PR masterpiece by the American owners, or a silly mistake by Rodgers. Thought Gerard and Lieva came over quite well, with subtitles needed for Carragher.

F1 back underway this weekend, the focus seems to be around Hamilton and where is he driving next year, perhaps clarity after this weekend. Expecting Red Bll to come back into contention this weekend with the tight track, with McLaren keeping up the challenge.  Unfortunately I don't think Ferrari may struggle to maintain a challenge throughout the whole race, (cue Alonso win!!)

T20/20 underway, good game this afternoon with Aust v WI, expecting some fluctuations on the odds, danger will be early wickets, but a lay of 1.6 on each side going in.

Some horrible rain this weekend forecast, so be careful all round, i see some of the race courses have declared heavy going, and the NRs are again starting to come, so take care. In the Ayr Gold Cup my £2 is on Our Jonathan.

Any how good luck for today, if I get some time today going to have a look ahead at the Ryder Cup

Back
2.05 Newbury - Artic Cosmos
2.10 Newmarket - Graphic Guest
2.30 Listowel - Reine Angevine

EW
1.55 Catterick - Rust
2.35 Newbury - Taayel
3.35 Listowel - Littletown Lass

Lay
2.30 Catterick - Authentication
2.30 Listowel - Enchanted Forest
3.20 Newmarket - Infintum

Back to Lay
2.20 Ayr - Spinatrix
2.30 Catterick - Dr Irv
3.30 Ayr - Pintura

Football
Birmingham v Barnsley
Brum seemed to have steadied the ship after an iffy start, Barsnley just can't keep a clean sheet at the moment.
Lay Birmingham Match Odds £25
1-0 £3
2-0 £5
2-1 £5
3-0 £4
3-1 £4
Dangers are AUQ, and 3-2 so maybe a small back as the match goes on, very early goals could make things a little uncomfortable, if the game is a draw or Barnsley win then stake recovered on the lay.

Lay:
Southampton, Reading, Charlton, Colchester, Dundee

Lay the Draw
Chelsea v Stoke
Hamburg v Dortmund

Sunday's Winners, hopefully

Not too bad a day yesterday with some of the horses doing the business, the EW double started well with the first leg coming in at 5/1, so gave us plenty to lay off for the 2nd leg, and boy did we need it, I think the horse thought it was running in an egg and spoon race not a horse race. All the lays came in as well so a nice bit of green yesterday. Camelot ran well, but my personal opinion is that young Joseph actually lost the race by trying to go up the inside, he was against experienced jockeys in a top class race, they were not going to give him an inch, y the time he got himself out of trouble Encke had already gone up in the gears and got the run on him and it would have taken a wonder horse to catch him.

The footy didn't do too bad either, and the beauty of trading is that you don't need to forecast the correct team to win, as you can jump around and protect any outlays you may have made. Another lesson yesterday was the importance of watching of live games and trading. The Norwich game showed that goals were going to be few and far between, so scalping the U1.5 was made a bit more comfortable.  Also anybody watching the Liverpool game that did not lay Sunderland when they went ahead need to ask themselves some questions.  Liverpool were so much in the ascendancy, and when Sunderland went ahead against the run of play their odds went down to below the 2.0 mark, so a fairly cheap lay was to be had.

Interesting game at Reading today, but one I am staying out of, i like AVB, and he has the talent to become a good manager, but he does have his problems with lack of depth in the squad.  Reading are unbeaten in their last 11 home games but they do leave themselves wide open, so the chances will be their for both teams. may leave it until HT and score dependent may get involved.

Champions League proper underway this week, so something to get the teeth into. Couple of bets to keep an eye on: Top goalscorer: Mario Mandzukic, Carlos Tevex, Thomas Muller, all bug prices and most bookies offering EW.  Outsiders for the final: PSG , Zenith St Petersburgh, both have money, decent draws and experienced players.

Todays thoughts below, stake retrival as always is 1st goal, if youu need to give some back to the bookies to look after the bank, then do so, it will always be there tomorrow,

Back
2.20 Listowel - Top Man Micheal
4.40 Bath - Miracle Maid
5.40 Bath - Waspy

EW
2.10 Bath - Uncle Rodger
2.40 Bath - Authoritarian

Lay
4.00 Ffos Las - Asphan Sam
4.10 Bath - James Pollard

Back to Lay/IR Trade
2.20 Listowel - Top Man Micheal
3.10 Bath - Tregereth
4.10 Bath - Iquacu
5.10 Bath - Lucky Diva

Football Trades
Wolves v Leicester:
no clean sheet from Wolves so far this season, & Leic decidedly dodgy start, personally think this has draw written about it. Starting with the following, but need to keep an eye to the match.  Don't forget scalp if you can to get some insurance in the bank:
1-0 £3
0-1 £3
1-1 £5
2-2 £5

Roma v Bologna/Ath Madrid v Rayo Valecano
if draw gets down to 3.5 then LTD

Pescara v Samdoria
Lay Pescara

Napoli v Parma
If Parma take the lead then lay Parma
or
1-0 £5
2-0 £5
1-1 £3
O2.5 £20
Lay off each score as the goals go in. Keep an eye on match stats if 0-0 at HT and goals look likely then stay in, if not think about taking a small red to minimise losses.

Saturdays thoughts & tips

Well that's me back from a nice weeks break in Italy, very relaxing and some great company (including the wife). whilst away I found another nationality of people who managed to annoy me more that i thought possible. In the past the French have wound me no end of times to the point that I now refuse to go to Paris, but as of this week the Koreans are very quickly catching them up. Where ever I looked they were there, I can be impatient at times but some of these people took it to the point of utter rudeness. A lot of it was small stuff, but put together didn't half wind me up, perhaps I'm just getting old.

I caught the closing ceremony of the Paralympics whilst away and t was interesting to hear the Italians view of the coverage given to the event by the British media, as well as the hosting of the whole Olympic event by GB, nothing but compliments coming from our European neighbours on a job well done.

I see that Andy Murray is going walk about in his local town tomorrow, it did make me smile, anybody that knows Dunblane will know that the walk should only take 5 minutes from one end to the other.

Glad to see that the correct result has finally come out regarding Hillsborough, what upsets me most is the fact that 41 people could have possibly been saved. 41 people who went to see a football match and who should have came home. The other thing that concerns me is why the cover up? Who authorised/instigated it, they are the people who should be held to account, I hope the families get everything they ask for.

Today the football gets back into full swing after a couple of lack lustre internationals (lets not mention the Wales result!!). Should see some patterns start to emerge over the next cuple of weeks as the  squads and managers settle down.  The flat season draws towards its close with the St Ledger today, everbody seems to be all over Camelot, but keep an eye on Guarantee, interesting prospect.

Also playing tonight is Newport v Cardiff, always a good local rugby fixture, one of the many good Rugby Union games on over the weekend.

I also see Prince Harry is a little bit peeved with Kate, for stealing his limelight!! Who's next Philip mooning off the palace balcony ... :-)

Anyway some thoughts below, quite a few NRs already showing up, so be careful. Don't forget first aim is always stake retrieval.

Back
3.00 Curragh - Wexford Opera (possible fcast with Orator)
3.30 Bath - Dancing Primo
3.30 Curragh - Uleavemebreathless
8.20 Kempton - If So

EW Double
2.15 Bath - Alcando
5.10 Bath Arch Event

Lay
3.50 Newcastle - Sabore
4.25 Newcastle - Military Call
4.55 Newcastle - Seven Veils

Place Lay
2.35 Newcastle - Talent Scout

Back to Lay/Trade IR
2.50 Bath - Linkable
3.55 Chester - Mandy Layla
5.25 Newcastle - Ypres
6.50 Kempton - My Mate Jake
8.20 Kempton - Blue Nova


Football Trades
Single: Back Celtic far too big  big at 1.4
Single: Back Hearts, too big at 2.7

Norwich v West Ham.
5 of last 6 games have been drawn, personally expecting a low scoring game, so a low risk trade:
0-0 £2
1-1 £5
2-0 £2
O2.5 £15
Scalp 0-0/U1.5, if necessary wait until O2.5 reaches 2.0 then place.

Fulham v West Brom
West Ham started well, only losing to Man City & Arsenal in last 11 games, Fulham have been a bit hit and miss, and in my view are false favourites. Could well be a couple of goals in this game
O2.5 £20
1-1 £5
0-2 £2
0-0 £3
Lay U3.5 £10, lay another £10 at 1.2
Scalp U1.5 for some insurance.

Sunday Choices & Tips

Apologies for no post on Saturday, feeling decidely under the weather, and i can't even blame the beer or wine. Rough as a badgers ass is an understatement. Perhaps it was the realisation of finishing work for a couple of weeks, off to the sunny side of Italy for a couple of days for a well earned rest.

Paralympics are underway, and what a breathe of fresh air, quite humbling sat on on a couch thinking how the heck do they do that.  Really impressed not only with determination and resiliency, but also with skill and aptitude  hopefully go a long way to change some small minded views that people have of those who are not 'main stream'

This week saw the closure of the transfer window, many shocks? I don't think so. personally disappointed to see Carroll leave Liverpool, I thought he had something to prove and that Rodgers needs a plan B, time will tell. The fact that nobody came into replace him was disappointing, and is this the money men saying balance the books, King Kenny spent this years money last year.....  Interesting to see Fergie saying he was spending no more due to UEFA fair play rules, some common sense kicking in? Everton brought in a few players, but was are they any better that present, think it was more of a case of getting some depth to a thin squad. AVB appears to have had a falling out at White Hart lane already, looks like a battle of wills going on down there!!  I wasn't too positive about my local side Dunfermline at the beginning of the season, but by all accounts things are looking up, young squad settling in playing good attacking football with experienced manager, perhaps the 3.75 to win the league may not be too bad a price.

In the cricket, my personal feelings are that Cooke has been handed a poisoned chalice, the expectation is there now that England will win all their games, did Strauss see the writing on the wall, were KP's comments a bit too close for comfort? Best of luck to Cooke, think he'll need it.

F1 back underway today, with Button being pretty impressive, if he gets away clean good posibbility that the race will be his for the taking, laying the leader at 1.78 after the first 2 laps. and trading from  there.

Only a couple of races today, and expecting a few non runners still to come out, so be careful.

Lays
2.00 Folkestone - Gazboolou (Watch for market support)
3.00 Folkestone - Kingswinford
3.30 Folkestone - Paradise Spectre
3.40 Newton Abbot - Take of Shocs (Watch for market support)

Backs
4.30 Folkestone - Runaway Girl
5.00 Folkestone - Albaspina

Footy Trade
Recent history shows a tight game between these two, but both can score freely.  Look to scalp either the 0-0/U1.5.
Napoli v Fiorentina
1-1 £5
2-2 £3
0-2 £2
O2.5 £25
U1.5 £5