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Saturday 16 March 2013

Saturday's Tips, Thoughts & Trades

Oh well that was the week that was, all over for another year. Cheltenham, invited the best of the current crop and along they came.  Some went home with their heads held high, where others went home rather disappointed, with the words of 'good effort, but more homework required' ringing in their ears. Now am I talking about the horses , the trainers, or the punters?  The Irish came out on top, with the winning trainer & jockey, punting wise i think its fair to say the bookies didn't go home empty handed.

On a personal basis, I enjoy this festival and this year have came away with a slight increase in the bank balance, so can't complain.  highlights included Hurricane Fly show his true worth, the ride that Quevega was given was a joy to behold, what a lovely horse Sprinter Sacre is, also enjoyed the runs of Champagne Fever and Benefficent along with Solwhit. Some cracking racing but with the very subtle reminder of the bravery and skill that the jockey's produce endlessly, and I am sure we all wish JT McNamara a quick and speedy recovery.

Today sees the start of the tailing off of the season, with the Midlands Grand national down at Uttoxeter, I had 2 runners for this, only for them to both be NRs. So take care today, a lot of changeable weather, and a lot of non runners starting to appear.  Some of the fields were not that big, so look out for any EW bets that you may have had. look out for Connectivity in the 3.15 Uttoxeter  long time off, but has ability, also watch for under Par in the 7.50 at Wolverhampton  can be expensive to follow, but if he puts it all together the spoils will be there to be had.

The F1 season got off to a great start (not!!) with qualifying delayed 24 hours due to weather conditions, i see Hamilton's price has been early halved for the Championship, all down to his fast practise times, so I am happy to take him on as a lay, fully expect him to drift over the next few races.. Vettell still setting the pace, and an interesting race to come.

The early kick off sees Man City travel to Everton, something seems to have gone wrong with Moyes team, at the moment. At a time he could do without it.  Man City can't afford to lose, one more lose equals curtains for their Premiership hopes.  Trade below favours a Man City win. Southampton host Liverpool, the visitors are not great value, St Mary's has no been a great place for the top teams to visit. I expect a Liverpool win, but a hard fought one.  Joe Allan is fit, but still a question mark over who is playing in goal. Arsenal have to go to a bouncing Swansea, may be a little backing of the Swans here, Arsenal have a few injury worries and don't have the best of squads to fill in.

My local team, Dunfermline Athletic, are well and truly in the mire, the team and back room staff were going great guns at the beginning of the season, but financial issues have now taken over.  A lot of fighting over ownership, along with HMRC and other creditors are knocking at the doors. It has split the fans, so if you are thinking of having any money on a Dunfermline game, i would advise against it!!

The 6 Nations come to the end today with the big match down on Cardiff. My heart tells me a home win, but if I was the English team, i would be wanting to prove something. Experience may out in the end, along with the skill and power of the back line. Good Luck to all of those wearing red today... :-)

Backs
2.45 Down Royal - Shinrock Paddy
2.40 Uttoxeter - Grouse Lodge
4.25 Uttoxeter - Financial Climate
5.25 Ffos Las - Monkey Kingdom

EW & EW Doubles
2.15 Kempton - Lordofthehouse
2.20 Linfield - Ladies Are Forever
4.35 Kempton - Tante Sissi
5.10 Kempton - Be Definite

Place lays at 1.3, and win lays at 1.17 on all.

Home win & Double
Notts County
Montpellier

Trixie
Gillingham
Lyon
Cardiff

Lay The Draw
Southampton
Bologna

Trades Starting positions:
Everton v Man City
Lay Man City £20
0-1 £3
1-2 £4
1-3 £3
watch for small backs on Any unquoted and 1-1

Den Haag v Vitesse
Lay U3.5 £20
1-0 £3
1-1 £5
1-2 £5
0-2 £4
look for small back of 0-3

Good Luck

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