Saturday's Picks 30th June

Looks like a quiet day on the sporting front. Wimbledon carries on, Federer nearly joined Nadal on the beach last night, but in the end his class and fitness shone through. Over at the Tour De France it looks like Lance Armstrong's past could be catching up with him  http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/cycling/18655970
Other interesting news see Usain Bolt given a bit of a shock, or was he just taking it easy before the main event in July? And what about Gareth Bale? Signs a new 4yr contract then pulls out of the Olympic squad, suspicious, and does this mean Beckham gets his wish to play?

One of the funniest things I read today was the Scottish Rugby's 4 year strategy. They have outlined plans to win the Grand Slam and a World Cup, not bad for a team that couldn't get out of the groups at the last World Cup and finished bottom of the last 6 nations.  As if Scottish sport wasn't facing enough ridicule at the moment with the ongoing farce with of one of the bigoted brothers, or the club formally know as Rangers FC.

I am hearing the queues to get into to the tennis are presently up to 6 hours long, go home and watch it on the telly!!. The Brit Andy Murray takes on Baghdatis later this afternoon. should be an interesting match with Murray's former coach now against him in the opposing camp.  we've also got Nadal's conqueror in action today, but as I have said previously, I'll be surprised to see him progress much further. Over in the Womens tournament the last remaining Williams sister is up against the feisty Chinese girl Zheng, could be a good match. 


Care should be taken with the horses today, a lot of rain around the past couple of days, the clerks say the ground is OK and is riding as per the going, I think some horses may struggle!! Also a little treat in store this eening with Camelot due to run at the Curragh at 1940.


So a bit of easy trading on the tennis and a couple of quid hopefully off the nags, and a look forward to watching a quiet kick-about between Spain & Italy tomorrow.


Good Luck.

Today's Horses:

Backs
2.30 Newmarket - Sandreamer (50% of normal stakes)
8.30 Lingfield  - Seven Veils

Lays
4.50 Chester -  Reflect
7.45 Doncaster -  Spanish Wedding

EW
3.30 Windsor - Bella Orphelia

You're Out....

Well what an interesting week on the sports front.

Fairly quiet start to the week, with our English cousins never really doing themselves any real justice and allowing the Italians to proceed.  Then the strawberries came out, and out went a couple of my initial Wimbledon portfolio.

Then came Wednesdays bore draw in the football, OK Spain stepped it up towards the end, but was that more down to Portugal's tiredness. Now the Portuguese had enough chances to score,  but again not taken, and why did they keep trying to put everything through Ronaldo, any way they paid the price and out they went.

As for Thursday, my outsiders for Euro 2012 done me some justice and efficiently dispatched a German side who i thought were full of arrogance, and as for Super Mario, he done well didn't he.  And the biggest shock of all was Nadal getting his totties. Good luck to his conqueror, Rosol, but I can't see him going too much further.

As for my trades, Italy done me proud on Thursday, and Portugal cost me a couple of quid, thankfully none of the +£6m traded on Nadal belonged to me, but my portfolio is still hanging on. So overall a little bit more green than I started the week with.

Need to be careful this weekend, some dodgy weather about so care to be taken.

A Nice Bit of Green

Well the F1 trade came up with a nice green, and interesting to hear Vettel say that it was possibly the safety car to blame!!! The car was broke, it couldn't maintain the race pace,  its OK having qualifying pace but it needs to last the distance, get it back in the garage.  And as for Hamilton, can't fault him for fighting for places but his pit crew need to sort a few things out, the more mistakes the more the pressure comes, still a nice green overall.

Cricket came up trumps as well, so a few more shillings in the coffers, able to trade it out then sit and watch an enjoyable game.

The nags done alright as well, both lays doing the business, and the EW romped home nicely at an SP of 10/1, at 15s when posted,  kerchin.....

And what can we say about the football, after the first 20 minutes expected a couple of goals. Got a little green on the HT trade, but lost a little on the CS trade, overall a scratch. Thought England ran out of ideas, and I know hindsight is a wonderful thing, but was it right having Rooney on the pitch, he seemed to run out of steam a bit too quick, and was it just me or were Welbeck and Milner virtually invisible?  Anyway onwards and the tennis beckons for the next 2 weeks.

Sun + Strawberries = Wimbledon

Well here comes the sun and Wimbledon is upon us yet again. Will we be treated to the usual false hopes of the Scotsman Murray, or will the British Andy Murray finally get the elusive prize? Personally I can't see it happening, he has been struggling with a couple of niggling injuries and could do with an easier first round draw. He did however change his back room team recently so he obviously feels they will bring the best out in him. Hope he does well, but I think the prize is beyond him. Might have a quiet £2 on him at 15s.  This year's men's portfolio consists of:  
Raonic
Berdych
Del Potro
Isner as an outsider 
Djokovic to win.  
All are tradeable through the tournament.


In respect of the Women's tournament, who knows!! and I think this is backed up by the fairly close odds, Serena Williams is second favourite and if she stays injury free could big up the winners prize, Sharapova has  been hitting the ball pretty clean and as tweaked her serve, & has also become stronger mentally. My portfolio this year is limited to:
Li Na
Stosur
Radwanska as an outsider
Sharapova to win.
Again all tradeable as the tournament progresses.


Hopefully the weather holds off and the strawberries and cream are in full flow.


Good Luck

Sunday's Picks

England against Italy is going to be an interesting, the English media are upping the hype on Roy's team, as a Celt it's always interesting for me to watch them come down to earth with a bump. Italy were my outsiders at the start, and I believe should never be under estimated, their defence will not like the high intensity that England can play at though, so that does leave them vulnerable.  Wellbeck also drifting in the first goal scorer market, so is he starting?  personally would prefer to see Carroll staring, thing he will both the Italians with is stature, leaving the speed of Wellbeck & Walcott for the 2nd half to get in amongst it.
trading wise: Italy have not exactly free scoring with all games so far U2.5, and only one goal at diff at HT.  England have a similar HT record so are there any options?
HT
0-0 £4
1-1 £2
1-0 £3
0-1 £3
Trading as the half progresses.
CS
1-0 £3
0-1 £3
1-1 £5
2-2 £2
Laying U2.5 at HT possible

Horses:
Lays:
1450 Hereford  -The Lemon Pie
1650 Hereford - Kayfton Pete

EW
1710 Pontefract - Byronic Hero

Reversed Forecast
1400 Hexham - Moulin De La Croix, Face Value

Good Luck

Sunday mornings...

While not the best of days on Saturday.
God's team (Wales) let themselves down with a lack of self discipline against an Aussie team there for the taking, gutted.
The horses done ish on the lay front, with one shorty letting me down by a neck but I got stung a little on the LTF.
If France could of held out for another 2 minutes then the insurance would have saved the HT bet, how unusual for France to let me down, not.....
Not to worry though the rest of the trade got me through and covered by loss. France were poor, struggled to really worry Spain.
Interesting to see Black Caviar run, did the jockey cock up, was she injured or was it just a step up in quality of horses faced? I see connections are now talking about retirement for her.

Well today it is off to Valencia for the Grand Prix, Vettel took an impressive pole, with his car having under gone some aero modifications. Hamilton has surprised himself by how quick he was (or were the others just slow?). Don't fancy Hamilton for some reason, and will lay Vettell after lap 3 if he is leading, looking to trade back during the pit stops & safety cars.

England v WI in 20/20 also this afternoon, calls for the usual of laying both sides at 1.6.

Wife wants to do her online shopping now :-( so will look at the horses and England later.

Spain v France

In my eyes neither team has been that impressive, although Spain have always seemed to have something in the back pocket if they needed to step up a gear.
Little unsure on the match odds with best prices of Spain 1.88, France 5.25, Draw 3.5. if you were to look at the stats Spain have not beaten France in their last 6 competitive tournament meetings. Coupled with the stat that since 1996 11 of the last 16 Euro quarter finals have finished under 2.5 goals and half of them under 1.5.
Spain do have a tried and tested front line who are all available, but France seem to be a bit more jelled this year. So it wouldn't surprise me to see Spain drift during the game.
A lot of pundits seem to be thinking the match is going to penalties and I think this would suit both sides.
4 of the last 6 matches have been 0 - 0 at half time, and I see no reason why a tight start wouldn't be the norm.
One of the dangers are that either team could close up shop if they score.

Personally I am going:
HT Score: back 0-0 @ 2.5 trade out/Lay for at least stake recovery at 1.5. Some insurance at Corals available if needed with goal 21- 30 at 7s and 31 - 40 at 8s.
CS: Backing 1-1 and laying Under 3.5, from the start, then backing whichever team scores first. May consider laying Under 2.5 if 0-0 at HT.

Looking forward to a decent game.

Good Luck

Saturday's Nags

Laying the Field:

looking to Lay all horses in the field to achieve an overall profit. Look for fields that have no clear favourite, and personally do not like going above 1 mile. No good for jump races.  It can be hectic, hence the need for an automated  piece of software e.g GRUSS, Bet Angel. I look to lay at 3.35 for £2, 2.78 & 2.4 for £3 and 1.78 & 1.48 for £5. If it comes for kerching.....

Today's Fields:

Newmarket 1440

Newmarket 1540

Ascot 1625

Laying

Usually lay to a set liability, and try to get a a quid on to recover some stakes at higher prices:

Down Royal 1550: Rattan

Newmarket 1725:  Touch Gold

Why??

Why am I going to embark on this?
Well I decided I need to get some discipline into my life, along with some money management.  If i post a thread on forums I find that i put more effort into what I do, whilst I also find myself putting in the research and though process.
I don't profess to be an expert, more a experienced amateur.  Main interests revolve around the usual favourites of football, horses with some golf & Formula 1 thrown in.
Not al ideas are my own, i make no secret of the fact that for some selections and thoughts I will use all resources and information available to me, but may put my own spin on things.
In the past most of my selections were usually straight forward backs or lays, but my journey has taken me down the paths of trading and arbing/hedging.
hopefully all will be successful, but i have no doubt there will be some down days, but lets see how things go.
Anyway good luck to all.