Washout Sunday

A bit of a so so day today, with the weather seeming to be having an affect all round. Only one race meeting and that's over the water at Navan, with Exeter now advertising water polo. if I was looking at any bets i would keep the following in mind: Honey Bach, Bonisland, with a lay on Busty Brown.

Final Grand Prix of the season, which fittingly will determine the drivers championship. Normally i would have backed Hamilton for the race, but it seems that Alonso may have sacrificed some speed for a wet weather set up yesterday, he also has his team mate sat on Vettel's exhaust from the start so it looks like it could be an interesting race, toom many people will want to win it, but Vettel will not want to do anything silly to compromise his race.  Watched an interesting interview with Schumacher yesterday, quite insightful if you get the chance to watch. Starts around the 19 minute mark - www.bbc.co.uk/i/b01p3s9s/

Yesterday's rugby has its consequences, with a certain All Black hooker almost certainly will be missing a few matches followings his right hook on Bradley Davies. And least said about that bloody French referee again the better!! There is also a now a vacancy for the Scotland job  with Andy Robinson having thrown in the towel following the Tonga defeat. When will people understand that there are very few easy games in International Rugby these days.

In the cricket, it looks like England may actually get a result, some exciting batting from KP, some solid batting from Cook, and some intelligent bowling from Panesar/Swann. Should be enough to get a result tonight/tomorrow morning.

Some pretty good football games today, and in particular looking forward to the Swansea v Liverpool game. both sides trying to implement their new manager's systems. Both sides like to score and both have a habit of conceding. Both sides like to play football as well as numerous personal cross overs with ex-managers and players, so a lot of pride also at stake.  Below are a couple of basic stats, with the best odds of some recommended bets.

League Position:
Swansea 10
Liverpool 11

Goals
Swansea
Av Goals Scored at Home = 1.7
Av Goals Conceded at Home = 1.5

Liverpool
Av Goals Scored Away = 1.8
Av Goals Conceded Away  = 1.8

O2.5
Swansea
Av Home Games O2.5 = 83.3%

Liverpool
Av Away Games O2.5 = 60%

Top Scorers
Swansea:
Michu (7)
Dyer (3)

Liverpool:
Suarez (9)
Gerard (2)

Clean Sheets
Swansea at Home = 1 game from 6
Liverpool Away  = 0 games from 5

Streaks
Swansea Home Game Since a loss: 3
Liverpool Away Game Since a loss: 4

Corners:
Swansea Av = 8.1
Liverpool Av = 5.4

Best Odds:
To win: Swansea 3.8 Liverpool 2.15 Draw 3.6
First Goals Scorer: Suarez 6.0 Michu 9.0 Graham 9.3 Gerard 11.5 Enrique 21
Corners: Over 11 2.0
O2.5: 1.82
Correct Score: Liverpool 3-1 19.0 Draw 2-2 15.0, Liverpool 2-0 13.0, Swansea 2-1 13.0

Saturday's Tips & Trades

Very quick note with just today's selections.  Weather rubbish in the south of the country so watch the going at Ascot.

EW
12.55 Haydock - Black Thunder
1.00 Gowran Park - Blacklough
1.40 Ascot - Romance Dance

Back
2.35 Gowran Park - Hidden Cyclone
3.50 Ascot - The Nephew

Lay
1.40 Ascot - Pyleigh Lass
6.50 Wolverhampton - Gung Ho Jack

Back To Lay
3.10 Gowran Park - Spot Fine
3.20 Ascot - Tanks For That

Home Win
Brighton
Valladolid
Rennes

Away Win
Tranmere
Arsenal
Heracles

O2.5
Hull
SC Bastia

Footy Trade
Malaga v Valencia: Important to get some early insurance out of 0-0/U1.5
O2.5 Back £15
U3.5 Lay £15
2-0 £5
0-2 £3
1-1 £5

Punchestown v Cheltenham - Sunday's Tips & Trades

Well its not just Wales that are rubbish against the Southern hemisphere sides,  I know they are match fit, but we should at least be competitive, there are times where I feel the visitors haven't really got into top gear. Some of the decision making also by key players was very questionable.

Just watching a bit of the cricket, with England finally putting up a bit of resistance against the slow bowlers of India. If they England get away with a draw then it will be a battle well fought.

Quieter day on the sporting front today, with a bit of quality over the water. Good to see Hurricane Fly back n the track, will be interesting to see how he goes. May be worth keeping an eye out for Magical Island, at Fontwell, fancy a decent run. Also may have a closer look at Glam Gerry and Clondaw Knight at Cheltenham for an EW selection.

The footy turned up a good couple of games yesterday, with a fair amount of goals split between the divisions. Although I do have to say 'what the feck was Adebayor playing at yesterday' talk about letting your side down.  How much longer for Mark Hughes at QPR, worrying sign when your chairman comes out on twitter and comments on the game!! Fairly quiet on the football front, and Sunderland have an awful lot to do this afternoon, really poor record in front of goal with Fletcher being the only bright spot. In the Championship sees one the dirtiest rivalries with Millwall v Leeds, couple of goals there for me.


Back
1.40 Punchestown - Back in Focus
3.50 Punchestown - Rough Justice


EW
1.45 Cheltenham - Well Sharp
2.50 Cheltenham - Snap Tie

Lay
2.05 Fontwell - River D'Or
2.45 Punchestown - Courtncatcher

Home Win
Inter Milan
Siena

Away Win

FC Twente 1965

Atletico Madrid

O2.5

Millwall FC

Footy Trade
Fiorentina v Atalanta. I've got this game down as being quite tight, but would be no suprise to see a few goals going in when the deadlock is finally broken. So the need to scalp the U1.5/0-0 is important.
0-1 £2
2-0 £4
1-1- £7
O2.5 £20
U3.5 Lay £15

Good Luck

Bring on the All Blacks.... Today's Tips & Trades

Few words today, busy, busy busy. And still getting over another poor Welsh performance last night. But hey, not to worry, we'll bounce back next week, its only the All Blacks!!!!!!

Good week last week with the horses, always nice when a 200/1 comes home.... Several good races today, but watch the going, some heavy rain in parts overnight, so some very tacky ground possible. Watch out for the finishing times to get a truer view of the going.

The Grand Prix moves to a new venue over in the good ole USA. looks an interesting track, and it sounds as though the Red Bull has settled in well.  Looking forward to seeing the first corner action tomorrow, also likely to see the safety car I reckon with so many unknowns.

Football seen what is debatable one of the best scored this week. Zlatan can be a right moody git, but when he is on his game he's not too bad. Does strike me though as somebody who plays for the money rather than the team/shirt. Couple of decent derbies around today. AVB will be looking to continue Arsenal's poor run, and with the amount of doubtful players the Gunners have it is definitely possible. The mighty Pars take on the neighbours, they need to win after last weeks blip, but still some hassles going on behind the scenes, so do worry about how that affects them.

Anyway off to do some of my chores, then settle down for some quiet afternoons sport, have a bank filling day.


Back
12.55 Uttoxeter - Global Warming (watch out for market drift)
1.30 Uttoxeter - Joseph Mercer
2.25 Wetherby - Mr Moss
3.50 Punchestown - Clondaw Court

EW
2.35 Cheltenham - Nadiya de la Vega
3.10 Uttoxeter - Eyre Apparent

EW Trixie
1.30 Utto - Flying Column
2.55 Wetherby - Deise Dynamo
3.45 Uttoxeter - Up and Go

Lay
3.05 Cheltenham - Lovcen
3.25 Wetherby - Fleet Dawn

Back to Lay
12.25 Punchestown - Tarquinus
12.55 Uttoxeter  - Gorey Lane
3.05 Cheltenham - Bouggler


Home Win
Port Vale
Rochdale

Away Win
Notts County
Saint Etienne

O2.5
Arsenal
Reading
Chesterfield

Footy Trade
Man City v Aston Villa. This game should have home win written all over it, but as always be careful. Danger here is 1-0, option to take AUQ instead of O3.5, but you may need to cover off a couple of other scores, adjust as you see fit.
Man City Lay £30
2-0 £5
2-1 £5
3-0 £4
O3.5 £20

Good Luck

Welsh Woes With Sunday Tips & Trades

Well a pretty poor performance from Wales yesterday.  It should have been no surprise that the Argies would be up for a good game, they play against the top sides in the world, and their players are spread amongst some of the top leagues in the world.  what was disappointing was the lack of Welsh application and solid leadership/direction on the field.  I accept that there was a young half back partnership, and that may be the way the future goes, but where was the support around them to help there decision making. Voyle is supposed to be the link that helps the game flow between the forwards and backs, Priestland is the guy that controls the speed of the game, but to be honest I struggle to see any impact they made on the game.  personally I would prefer to see mike Phillips on from the start with Voyle coming on for the last 15 or 20 minutes. the pack done their bit but were badly let done y the backs and lack of solid impact tackles and runs. Play like that for the rest of the Autumn and we will pay a very big price. At stake is are Lions selections, the seeding/draw for the World Cup as well as the confidence for the 6 Nations. It's going to be a tough month. Big improvement needed!!

Today see the great team that is the All Blacks take on a confident Scottish side. A good game is install, and the Scots have it in their heads that they will push the Kiwis all the way, my belief is that the All Blacks will go through the gears as needed and should be able to deal with the Scots with ease. There may be a bit of value in siding with Scotland in the handicap.

Old Arsene must be spitting feathers after another poor performance, and missing a last minute penalty. What is going on at Arsenal at the moment, pretty good individuals, good manager, state of the art facilities, but they seem to struggle on the teamwork front and the mental aptitude side, and key players seem to want or need to leave.  Are there things going on in the background, are the financials restraints cutting deeper than thought? Two managers that must surely be looking up the address of their local job centre are Mark Hughes and Nigel Adkins. but should they be?  2 teams with various challenges, mainly off the park, and with boards that want results, but what they should be doing is providing stability and giving the squads reassurance and backing. Glad to see Fergie time in play again, got to hand it to him, he ensures his team fights to the end.

Is there any value left in the Chelsea/Liverpool game? O2.5 is at 1.73, Liverpool at 4.0 & Chelsea at 2.00, BTTS at 1.6, struggling to see any stand out odds. Liverpool have a fairly decent record at Stamford Bridge, but i worry about their young side, and Chelsea do have a creaky defence. There maybe some value in laying HT 0-0.  Fancy a few goals at Maine Road, but again little value to be had, might look at trading CS 2-2, 1-1 with U2.5. In the Newcastle game, I would be looking at a Newcastle O2.5 double.

The one performance that stood out yesterday was that of Overturn, a excellent display, jumping at with confidence and at speed. It was mentioned how would he react when he makes a mistake, surely the question is will he make a mistake? An exciting all round performer.

A bit lighter on the racing front today with a full jumps card either side of the water. Jim Best has an interesting runner at Ffos Las further enhanced with the booking of AP McCoy, only concern is unproven on the going. Nicky Henderson also has an interest that may be worth watching in the 2.30 at Ffos Las, but does need to improve on last seasons performances. Also at Ffos Las I had Velator down as a lay, but I have an itch that says leave it alone, an up & coming trainer, with a tidy jock onboard, coming back from a long time off. NR's starting to mess up the cards already to be watchful.


Back
1.10 Market Rasen - Don't Take Me Alive
1.45 Navan - So Young

EW
1245 Navan - Crouching Harry
1.45 Navan - Whatuthink
3.45 Limerock - Jadaneli

Value Lay
1.40 Market Rasen -Mr Watson

Home Win Acc @2.0
Porto, Ath Madrid, PSV

Away Win
Napoli
Ajax
Benfica

O2.5
Olhanense
Levante

Rugby Union
All Blacks to win (HCap -26)
All Blacks Winning Margin
11 - 20 @ 4's
21-25 @ 6.5
26-30 @ 7
Look to trade off as the game progresses.

Footy Trade
Chievo v Udinese.  This should be a low scoring tight, so should be no excuses to scalp some cover on the 0-0/U1.5 markets. If 2-2 goes about 30's before HT think about having £2 cover on. danger is 2-0 home win. Watch the scores and make sure you balance off against the O2.5.
0-0 £3.50
0-1 £4
0-2 £5
1-0 £3.5
1-1 £6
O2.5 £17

C'mon Wales - Saturday's Tips & Trades

Running late again today, long week......  Couple of decent meetings on today, but all with variable going so just take a little care. one of the runners that I couldn't seem to get my head round was Relax at Kelso, only ran yesterday, not finishing to well, but is off again today over 3f longer, does the trainer know something? - hold that thought just become a NR!!! Another horse of interest is Bollin Greta at Doncaster, tidy jockey, low weight, big price, good be a decent EW shout. Watch out for AP in the last at Sandown.

Footy sees another fairly full card, but will the goals be there after another busy midweek set of fixtures? Time will tell. In Spain , look at Zaragoza to win by 1 for some value.

In the rugby, expecting to see some decent games, think the Boks should overturn the Irish, and the Ozzies will have a good game in Paris. The value is with the Argies, would like to see Wales win, obviously, but the Argies will be no push overs, some value to be had using the handicaps.

Back
1.05 Naas - Hisaabaat
3.50 Kelso - Lucky Sunny


EW
1.10 Wincanton - Sum Laff
2.15 Wincanton - Aegean Dawn
2.35 Doncaster - Retrieve
4.05 Sandown - Florida Quays

EW Double
3.50 Naas - City Slicker
3.00 Sandown - Scorched Son

Lay
1.30 Kelso - Southern Leinster
2.40 Kelso - Kings Grey

Home Win 
Yeovil
Brentford
Blackburn

Away Win
Dortmund
Port Vale
Gillingham

02.5
SC Bastia
Reading

Footy trade
Stoke v QPR.  Cover 0-2 if QPR score first, scalp some insurance on 0-0/U1.5. Look to grren up at 2-0 0r 1-1. Danger is 1-0
0-1 £3
1-1 £7
2-0 £5
O2.5 £25

Sunday Tips and Trades

Just a quick couple of lines today, time is against me.  not a bad day yesterday with some decent performances from the horses, hope some were on Trustan Times, pretty solid performance.  Footy trades seem to be struggling a little, may need to review selection method.

Today sees Liverpool take on Newcastle this afternoon. Personally I think Liverpool are too short especially when taking recent results into account. Some value may be had by backing the reds to nil, or Liverpool win & U2.5, QPR take on Reading, my money is on QPR, with back up on O2.5.

What is going on at Red Bull? How can they not have enough fuel in the car for Vettel, surely a couple of litres will not make that much difference? This cock up has thrown the race wide open, Hamilton is quite short, and fancy a small lay. Value may be had by backing Button for a podium finish. Also what an incentive for Alonso, expect him to put in a cracking race.

Some low level racing today, so be careful, and watch for some sleepers getting a run in. I see Albert Bridge is taking a bit of a caning over in Leopardstown, so may be one to watch. Another one to look out for is Hawkridge King at Huntington, easily treated last time out.

Back
1.25 Leopardstown - Mourani
4.30 Cork - Goodoldhonkytonk

EW
1.30 Carlisle - Big Occasion

Lay
3.30 Huntington - Stop the Show

Home Win
Bologna

O2.5
Lyon
Bologna

Footy Trade
Sampdoria v Atlanta
O2.5 £20 - may be as well to drip feed into over the first 15 minutes
1-0 £4
1-1 £5
2-0 £4
Scalp 0-0/U1.5 for cover, if Atlanta first score cover off 0-2

Saturday is for Sport.....

Well I think it's fair to say that the sponsors of the League Cup got their moneys worth this week, goals, extra time and more goals. An enjoyable watch, whilst also getting the change to see some of the youngsters getting a game. mind you I don't think I would like to be sat next to the young Man Utd centre back by the time Fergie had finished his debrief.

A cracking day's sport ahead, with plenty for all tastes. In Abu Dhabi McLaren appear to be struggling to get the right set up for their tyres, Vettel is in a good place, but Alonso and Ferrari seem to be keeping tight lipped about some improvements they are introducing   They seemed to have out foxed all last week with the tweak they made on their gearing. If I was to wager a pound then it would likely be Alonso/Vettel 1-2, that could change come qualifying.

Some cracking races around today. The top trainers seem to have spread their charges far and wide, when Paul Nichols has a runner at Down Royal its worth a second glance, same when Donald McCain send s one to Ayr. interesting little race in the 3.50 at Ayr, with the Lucinda Russell Horse up against the McCain horse, on paper a tight affair and should be worth a couple of minutes out to watch. The Charlie Hall Chase throws up some old favourites, my money is on Time for Rupert to come good. Look out for Trustan Times at Wetherby, nothing solid, but fancy him to run well at a decent price.  McCoy reckons he will be back after his incident yesterday, after all what is a few stitches and broken teeth between friends!!!! I'd be off for weeks!

A few people moaning about the call off of the New York marathon. Are they stupid, any sane and sensible individual could see that it was going to have to be cancelled. The locals have a few bigger things to think about at the moment.  How long before some runner files a law suit for adverse stress due to al the training they had completed, aaarrrgggghhhhh!!!

Man Utd v Arsenal the lunchtime game, sound be  a decent match, with both teams having a bit to prove, and some obvious weaknesses at the moment. I'd like to say I fancy some goals at Swansea v Chelsea, but my recent record on this has been rubbish!! Bayern seem a little big in tonight's game at Hamburg, same as Hearts at lowly Dundee. My  local side Dunfermline, like to do things the hard way, they have a young team playing well, sat top of the league, and then the board goes and splits, with admission of a cash flow issue, and rumours are rife about administration, but has the chairman says, we've been here before so lets move on!!

Back
3.00 Down Royal- Cristal Bonus
4.05 Down Royal - Directors Forum
4,15 Ascot - Puffin Billy

EW
1250 Ascot - Ivor's King
3.05 Newmarket - Hajras
3.10 Ascot - Baile Anrai
3.40 Newmarket - Entangle

Lay
2.10 Ayr - Daasij (be careful of market support)
3.40 Newmarket - Dance & Dance

Home Wins
Malaga
Valenciennes
MK Dons

Away Wins
Utrecht
Crawley

Back to Lay
3.10 Ascot - Nataani
3.45 Ascot - Doctor David

O2.5
Fulham
Bolton
West Ham

Footy Trade
West Ham v Man City
U2.5 Back £20
2-2 £5
1-3 £5
U4.5 Lay £40

Sunday, Sunday, its good to be here.....

The start of another fun filled week ahead, an extra hour in bed last night, and a full day ahead. Quick couple of lines this morning.  A mixed bag yesterday, particularly pleased with Jinky coming home at Wolverhampton at 10/1, keeps the bank manager happy.  A few shorties turned over yesterday, is this due to some yards not being fully revved up yet? Nice run from Kingsbarns as well, looks an exciting prospect for next year, seemly going down the same route as some of his predecessors.  Another nice NH card today, with meeting both sides of the water. Alan king seems to have a decent quartet going up to Liverpool, so may stick a quid ew on an accum for his runners. Donald McCain has some of his stalwarts out, but still not 100% that they are fully fit yet. also watch out for the Tizzards down at Wincanton, if the money is coming think about following.

The Man City game was a bit of a disappointment on the goal front, you would have needed your wits about yo if trading that game. Got myself some cheap greens yesterday, just by watching the stats coming in on some games from around the 30-35 minute mark, watching carefully you can see how a game is going, is a draw likely, home wins coming up, watch the shots on targets & accompanying corners for an idea of strength of play. Cheaper then to jump in and make any movement you wish.

Today sees another Super Sunday, weather is crap so what an excuse to sit and watch footy all day.  Fancy Everton to give Liverpool a hard time, and if the Reds defence is not up to the mark there is the possibility of a bit of a doing here.  Man U v Chelsea, brave man to call this one, both had hard games mid week, both sides leaking goals. On the form book i would have gone for Chelsea, but Fergie will have them fired up for this game, 2-2 draw? Fancy an entertaining match at Newcastle and that game has the prospect of some goals, to decent managers/coaches who play open football.  Elsewhere Feynoord v Ajax, both teams rebuilding and trying to recapture past glories, usually open flowing game. Marseilles v Lyon has the look of a draw, Fiorentina v Lazio maybe a red card in this match, with some goals, surprised to see Stuttgart so big against Frankfurt, personally had them a lot shorter, so maybe a value bet there.

Elsewhere, laying Vettel/Webber 1/2 in the Grand Prix, a couple of decent tennis matches to trade, look out for some value & differences in  the handicap prices in the London Irish v Quins match. have a great sunday and a good week.


Back
12.50 Wincanton - Giveitachance

EW
4.30 Aintree - Ballycool

Lay
2.40 Galway - Park Ranger
3.40 Wincanton - Might As Well

Back to Lay
1.20 Wincanton - Backhomeinderry

Home Win
Vitesse
Napoli

Away Win
Juventus
FC Twente

O2.5
Southampton
Vitesse
Chelsea
Estoril

Footy Trade
Catania v Juventus - fairly simple trade, scalp some cover on U1.5, if Catania score first look to cover 2-0, and possibly 1-2.
O2.5 £25
1-1 £5
0-2 £5

Chilly Saturday's Tips, Trades & Thoughts

If you hadn't noticed winter has started to arrive, up here in the north the first coverings of snow have arrived. Great, time for the thermals and hand warmers, frozen courses and under soil heating that fails....

Looks like I owe Celtic an apology  I expected them to be torn apart, but all credit they took the lead and fought well. Barcelona were head & shoulders above them in terms of talent, and I nearly felt sorry for Celtic conceding in the last minute, (but I only said nearly...). Arsenal seem to have hit the buffers lately just don;t seem to be able to string a performance/result together.  Looking from the outside is this team that is full of overrated potential, who are wrapped unsuccessfully in cotton wool. I mean flying to Norwich, 15 minutes, what is wrong with the National Express coach service like everybody else, perhaps they need to toughen up a bit and experience real live, then they may appreciate what they have to do to survive!!  Elsewhere watch out for the teams who were in action in midweek, history has shown that fatigue has set in and a few coupons have been busted.

Sounds like trouble is brewing at my local team, Dunfermline, with talk of board restructures, withdrawal of investments, directors up the creek without a paddle. just what the club needs when they are playing well and pushing for promotion.  The main factor in all of this though is the lack of fans at the matches, ad the main contributing factors are too much football on the TV and an overpriced admission fee, sound familiar to anybody else?  hopefully all will be sorted out quickly and things can settle down......

What we got on today then, a nice National Hunt card with a lot of the main stables in action, personally looking forward to the Aintree meeting.  The qualifying for the Indian Grand Prix has literally just finished, with Vettel taking another pole, a lay of Webber for me in this race, team will back Vettel and Hamilton will want to prove his ability before moving on. Ferrari seem to be struggling  bit in India so would be surprised to see Alonso at the front.  Elsewhere some good bits of Rugby Union on later, so looking forward to that.

Personally I'm off to see old Jimmy Bond, looking forward to seeing him save the world from ultimate destruction again.  So what enjoy whatever you are up to today.

Back
2.20 Startford - Esporao
6.45 Wolves - Jinky


EW
2.30 Doncaster - Move in Time
3.20 Doncaster - Elegant in Silk
4.20 Newbury - Links Lady Drive

Lay
1.45 Stratford - Ruby Crown
4.50 Chepstow - Kumbeshwar


Place Lay
3.45 Newbury - Tigers Tale


Home Win
Arsenal

Tranmere

Brentford

Toulouse

Away Win
Port Vale

Walsall

MK Dons

Gillingham

O2.5
Reading

Frieburg

Man City

Footy Trade
Man City v Swansea. A game that should have goals in, in my view the majority for the home side. Dangers are low scoring game, or if Swansea take a 0-2 lead. Game needs to be watched, get stake back whenever possible and play with other peoples money. Watch the other markets, you may need them as a get out, eg Next goal market. Set a green up target and stick to it. Could be a busy but interesting trade.
Man City Lay £20
U4.5 Lay £30
1-1 £3
2-0 £5
3-1 £5
4-0 £3

Good Luck

Bad Head Sunday - Tips & Thoughts

Got a pig of a head like nobody's business today, must be getting old, half a bottle of red wine and a steak dinner last night, surely that can't be responsible, it must be a head cold I'm coming down with. Stock up on the vitamin C and all should be well, either that or buy a better standard of wine in future.

Well he done it, even giving the rest of the field a head start Frankel still won well, not saying he strolled it but it was nice to see him go out on the high he deserves. Would have been nice to have seen him have ago at the Americans in the Breeders, but I suppose the thoughts of £100m+ for stud makes the owners think twice. The question now is where does the next superstar come from, anything showing up in the 2 yo races? Dawn Approach, Reckless Abandon, Olympic Glory?

Quiet day really on the racing front with the Uk's NH coming from Kempton, keep an eye out for Soul Magic in the 4.55, some reasonable races over in Cork, but just be careful of the going, can get very sticky.  If up to his potential Pires in the 3.45 could be worth a quid.

Some decent club rugby on recently, enjoy the European games, and nearly time for the test matches, oh yes!!

Nice bit of European football on in midweek, looking forward to watching Barcelona taking Celtic apart, although the only real value seems to be in the overs & unders 3.5 market, unless you are a die hard Celtic fan then you can odds around 30's.  Fancy a look at the Ajax v Man City game, Ajax rebuilding but is 5's too big, I thing so. Still also fancy a couple of quid on Zenit St Petersburgh to progress, have the opportunity has the dark horses.

Today's football will see all eyes on Tyneside for the Geordies against the Machens, personally I have spent quite a bit of time in both areas, with both sets of fans, and this is one game I will not be getting involved in. Like most derbies the form book is out the window, and pride and bragging rites come to the fore, lets hope for an entertaining game with a sensible referee.  In the past I would have gone with Hearts to beat Motherwell, but too much going on behind the scenes again at Tynecastle to be sure. Bit of value to be found with Everton, Fiorentina and Hamburg.

Lays
2.30 Bath - Gold Show
3.55 Naas - Special Bar

Back
3.00 Bath  - Annaluna
3.35 Bath - French Press
5.35 Naas - Great Jones

EW
2.45 Kempton - Grams & Ounces

Away Win
Everton
Marseille

O2.5
Osasuna (monday night game)

Trade - Socidad v Ath Madrid
Game to watch whilst trading, make sure you scalp some insurance. enough leeway built in to trade away if the scores go against us.  If high tempo beginning look to put some more on O2.5 or lay U3.5.
0-1 £3
1-1 £5
0-2 £4
1-3 £2
2-2 £3
O2.5 £15

Good Luck

Saturday is Here - Tips & Thoughts

Farewell Frankel, the latest greatest horse runs his last race today, will the going defeat him where all other things can't. I don't think so, and now that he is assured of running I foresee another victory against his name.  Is he the greatest, personally I'm in the no camp, he's good yes, he's remarkable yes, but has he really had any class opposition to go against, I don't think so. Lets hop he gets home safely and he he has a long and successful time at frolicking with all those lady horses.

A couple of yards having mixed results at the moment. Unsure about Donald McCain's horses, don't seen 100% at the moment, and Emma Lavelle/Twiston-Davies have question marks, on the opposite side Tim Vaughan and Lucinda Russell seem quite happy to send their horses around the country with confidence.  Following favourites today? The stats in chases at Kelso are with you.

Football took a few steps backwards this weekend, with a step back to the 80's. what shocked me about the Serbia incident, wasn't so much the fans behaviours, that unfortunately was expected, but the reaction of the Serbian coaches followed by the views of the Serbian FA were remarkable, FIFA really need to sort this out. And as for the Leeds match last night, what were we watching the worse part of our came back in glorious colour and HD. This was not helped either by 2 experienced managers who really should have known better.  The internationals were not that much to write home about, Wales got beat, again, Scotland were rubbish, again, and England were still half asleep from their uppers and downers fuelled night the night before!

A full programme of domestic games back on today, some value may be found with Spurs and Reading, and Schalke, all have outside chances of a result and following the midweek internationals who knows what will happen. My local side Dunfermline, continue to go well  though they do have a difficult game against Morton today, but by all accounts no major injury concerns and squad in good order.

Can't finish without saying WOW to Felix Baumgarter, extraordinary,  spectacular and utterly amazing, finished off with a cool landing. Hats off to him, and was it true that he managed to find Chris Waddles ball from his 1990 World Cup penalty!!!!


Back
2.55 Ascot -Sapphire
4.20 Cheltenham - Captain Sunshine
4.55 Cheltenham - Peckhamecho
5.45 Catterick - Blue Dune


EW
1.45 Ascot - Colour Vision
4.30 Cheltenham - Galaxy Rock

Lay
4.00 Catterick - King Fingal
6.50 Wolverampton - Celtic Step

Home Wins
Brighton
Hull
Yeovil
Swindon
Fleetwood
Gillingham
Port Vale

Away Wins
Tranmere
Notts County
Torquay
Arsenal
Vitesse

O2.5
Frankfurt
Crystal Palace

Trade
Swansea v Wigan - Both teams need a win, both teams know where the net is, both teams know how to concede. So goals guaranteed (cue 0-0!!).  Moveable trade, scalp some U1.5 & 0-0 for some insurance. look out for some red cards.
2-0 £5
0-2 £3
1-1 £5
O2.5 £ 25

Good Luck

Saturday's Picks and Thoughts

Now correct me if I get this wrong..... England won the World Cup in 1966, and heavens above we have never heard the end of it, Scotland then beat them a year later and declared themselves world champions, so following last nights results, does that mean Wales are now World Champions!!!  Leap of faith I know, but I like the sound of it, and it gets my vote
:-)

I think last nights results sounded the end of a couple of international managers, I would be surprised to see Levein and Trapatoni still in position after the mid week games. Wales Scotland was all about who wanted it more, and I personally felt Scotland didn't know how to change things when they needed.  I know some people will say they had a good goal chalked off, but then did Wales have 2 decent penalties refused? England didn't really look that good against the bar tenders of San Marino, Germany looked comfortable against a poor Irish side, Italy done just enough against Armenia, Croatia had a good result against Macedonia. Was supposed to see Portugal go down against Russia, and as expected Spain cantered against Belarus. So I suppose it's fair to say that all seems to be going well for the major teams.

Quiet day today on the footy front with the minor divisions getting the limelight, but need to watch for the low liquidities on some markets. I did have another Barnet loss on my list, but the signing of Edgar Davids has put me off slightly... A bit of tennis on soon, with some trading in store with Federer v Murray.

Red Bull seems to have got something right for the end of the season, interesting race tomorrow in Korea, how does Hamilton go, all support will be aimed towards Button, who had a good run, but was unluckily blocked in qualifying. Alonso is only just behind in 4th, will he get past the 1st corner, and what will Massa's role be, blocker or run his own race? Interesting to see how the the Lotus goes, they have qualified well. Neck on the line says that Alonso will win this one, he wants it more and has the ability to get through those ahead.

Some decent racing on today, going may be a bit sticky though with all the rain around, so take care, and watch for non-runners ruining any cards. Some decent group races for the younger horses,and the jumps definitely getting into full swing.  Like the look of Rigidity at Hexham, only concern would be the ground, but will risk a quiet quid.

Back
3.40 Chepstow - Hinterland
4.45 Chepstow - Victors Serenade
5.35 Hexham - Claiming Benefits

EW
3.35 Newmarket - Cry For The Moon
4.30 Hexham - Farm Pixie
4.40 Newmarket - Flying Officer

No Lays, don't trust the NRs/going

Home Wins
Crawley Town
Swindon Town
Tranmere Rovers
Gillingham
Fleetwood
Burton Albion

Away Wins
Brentford
Cheltenham

Asian Handicap
Stevenage Borough -0.5

Any trades will have to be on the fly, not enough liquidity/trust around at the moment

Good Luck

Sunday Selections & Trades

Just a quick note from me today, need to do some unavoidable work this beautiful autumn morning, not happy!!   A good jumps card today sees action up and down the country. Whilst there is also the continuation of the Arc meeting over the water, and I see A P O'Brien have gone over with strength in depth again, should be a good race. At home I see Lucinda Russell sends 2 on their travels again with Fog Patches & Quinder Springers making the journey down south, so maybe  £1 each way.

Football didn't do too bad yesterday, and apologies if you were looking for some of the fixtures i had mentioned, I inadvertently put out the whole weekend selections instead of just Saturdays, sorry.  So see below for Sunday's only. Couple of other areas to keep an eye to, could be looking at Spurs to be winning at HT, and some value at Liverpool winning to nil.  For viewing pleasure then I would imagine most will be looking at the Barca v R Madrid later today.

Backs
3.45 Huntington - Khazium (poss fcast with Juno The Muffinman)
4.45 Huntington - Wild Rhubarb
2.20 Kelso - War Singer

Lays
3.05 Huntington - Green to Gold
3.15 Uttoexeter - Bankroll
4.45 Huntington - Parc Des Princes

Back to Lay
4.15 Huntington - Tornade D'Estruval

O2.5
Southampton v Fulham
BMG v Frankfurt
PSV v Breda
Hannover v Dortmund

LTD
Napoli
Fiorentina

Footy Trade
Liverpool v Stoke, Have Liverpool finally found their feet, and have they learnt the lessons from midweek. Stoke haven't scored at Anfield in their last 4 visits, dangers here are a low scoring game, or a Stoke getting too much on top. So be prepared to bail out if nothing seems like coming. Look after your stake, and try and keep ahead of the game, possible 2 moves.
1-0 £5
2-0 £5
1-1 £5
O2.5 £20

Good Luck

Saturday's Thoughts & Trades

I believe I owe the European golfers a great big apology, what a cracking Sunday, I mentioned that the team seemed to be lacking heart & fight, well i don't know where they found it from but bloody hell it came out in buckets last week.  Anybody else think that Kaymar would miss that putt on the 18th, I know I was watching from behind the couch. But well done guys, the next one is only a few miles from me so I might even try to go and watch in 2014.

A few good games of footy in the week, with plenty of goals spread around. Enjoyed the Liverpool game, and the passing and movement at times was good, but they have got to sort out the concentration and stop the stupid mistakes. And I've got to say it but what a how big a fud is Ashley Cole? An example of how and what young kids should not aspire to.

Hamilton finally made the move that was anticipated, and personally I think it is the wrong move.  Does this mean Button becomes the team No1, and does this extend his shelf life by a couple of years? Time will tell.  Perez is an exciting young driver, with a lot of 'balls' and seems to enjoy is racing, so will be interesting to see him next year in a reliable car. And its a finally a farewell to Schumacher, well he deserves all the plaudits he gets, love him or hate him he has been great for the sport, didn't always agree with his methods but hats off to his skill levels.  Looking forward to this weekends Grand Prix, Vettel has secured a strong pole but fancy button to push him all race

A cracking game of Rugby this afternoon with South Africa take on New Zealand, the Springbok are doing well in this tournament, but you can never write off the All Blacks, but are they as strong as they have been in the past? SA +6 on the handicap could be the value.  Wouldn't be surprised to see Argentina turn over the Aussies today either, Aussies not travelling to well, and may be some value in the handicaps with the Argies.

Full domestic card this weekend before the internationals next week, my local team Dunfermline are away to Falkirk, one of their great rivals, and what is worrying is that they are strong favourites. But the way they are playing its justified. Some value in the premiership could be Arsenal - Both Teams to Score - Yes, WBA - back O2.5 and back to win, backing and trading the HT draw at Wigan may also be worth looking at.  A few games below to keep an eye to with a view to possibly trading through.

I see there is another small race meeting on today, but this time over in France  the UK starts to close down the flat season, and watch for some going changes or false readings. Also be careful as the flat seasons come to a close with some trainers just wanting to get a run in for when one of their charges.


Backs
2.20 Fontwell - Meganisi
3.35 Ascot - Captain Raminus (watch for market support if the rain comes)
5.50 Wolves - Fathsa
7.20 Wolves - English Summer

Lays
2.30 Ascot - Songcraft
5.55 Redcar - Majestic Manannan

O2.5
Swansea v Reading
Southampton v Fulham
Crystal Palace v Burnley
BMG v Frankfurt
Hannover v Dortmund
Bastia v Troyes
Sochaux v Rennes
PSV v Breda

U2.5
Yeovil v Colchester
Wycombe v Torquay
Aldershot v Chesterfield

Home Win
Stevenage Borough
Southend
PSV

Away Win
Brighton
Cardiff
Tranmere Rovers
Swindon
Gillingham

Footy Trade
Lille v Ajacco. Sticking my neck out a little on this one, but do fancy the stats to come through.  The trade is weighted with Lille, but they have had trouble keeping a clean sheet this season, have yet to get going. Past meetings have presented a fair few goals, so watch the O3.5 & O4.5 markets. 2-1 gives us a decent pay day.  Watch the results coming through and trade each score to protect stake.
1-0 £5
2-0 £5
2-1 £3
O2.5 £25
Lay Lille £20

Good Luck

Flipping Fat Fingers & Today's Tips & Trades

Do you know I said yesterday was going to be a funny old day, and so it turned out to be!!The horses didn't run too bad, and there was enough trading opportunities too ensure no losses. And if you didn't make enough green out of the football you need to revisit your staking and thought process!!

So what did I manage to do?  I completed a move on my computer that I have done 1000's of times before, but why was that such a point to mention, why? Because I managed to wipe all my profit plus some more, i made the mistake of trading whilst having had a couple of glasses of wine (very nice wine as it happens). I changed screens on my software and automatically pressed the relevant keys as is the norm, what I hadn't noticed was that the software was slightly slower than normal, and I ending up backing a footy score that was now completely impossible to achieve!!! Bang went my days profit plus a % of my bank!!!!  I would have been just as well stood on a street corner handing out tenners to passers by.

How annoying is this? Very, but please learn from my mistake and bloody incompetence, patience,wine and trading obviously don't mix. On reflection I couldn't work out why things were slower than normal, when reviewed I now realise I had other pieces if software running that I didn't really need. So to quote somebody "know your limits!!" Or to be more precise the limits of your PC/laptop.

It has forced me to take 5 minutes to sit down and re-evaluate my set up and structures, so not a bad thing, bloody expensive way to do it though.

Anybody else think that there is something missing from the Ryder Cup? (Apart from European points!!) it seems a sad thing to say but I think the Americans want it more, it seems to be a bit more than just a round of golf. The Europeans aren't pressing or applying any real pressure, surprising when you think many of them play on the US tour. If the Europeans turn things around today I would be astounded, I know they say its not over till the fat lady sings, but I can definitely hear her tweaking those vocal chords!!

Good to see Liverpool get a first win under their belts, and whilst I appreciate it was against a poor Norwich side, it should breed some confidence. Good to see some of the youngsters coming through and it shows some hope for the future, but they need to sort out their defence, they are being left so exposed by stupid mistakes. Must admit I had to smile at AVB's reaction at the end of the Old Trafford game, it obviously meant a lot to him, & as for Fergie moaning about extra time - come on Man Utd have had their fair share of it in the paste. In private Fergie is a lovely, warm, funny guy, but he's got to stop the moaning at times in front if the cameras.

Couple of derbies on the footy cards, Derby v Forest looks an interesting one, neither team know how to keep a clean sheet at the moment, both need the points, Derby are overpriced in my view. Villa v WBA, are villa still she'll shocked from last weeks mauling by Southampton, and does Lambert really know how wake this sleeping giant of a club, I don't think so. WBA are well organised and seem fairly solid. More than likely look at backing WBA DNB.

Sampdoria v Napoli has the makings of a good game, newly promoted Sampdoria are progressing well, and Napoli are unbeaten in nine, not expecting a lot of goals, maybe a Dutch of some low scores, with a Napoli bias and some cover on O2.5.

Not a lot of quality racing around,but plenty of 2yo races so some to watch for the future? expect a lot of NR's with the changing weather conditions, I am surprised to see Mussel burgh going as good, with the amount of rain around the are would have expected a softer going, may change later.

Back
2.40 Curragh - Boston Rocker

EW
5.30 Epsom - Dr Red Eye
2.55 Clonmel - Sizing Machine

Lay
5.30 Epsom - Ghostwing
5.15 Musselburgh - Here Now and Why

Footy Trade
Espanyol v Ath Madrid - No clean sheet from Espanyol yet this season  Athletico scoring for fun (cue 0-0!!) weighted for an away win, but be careful the home side do have the ability of putting in a performance  Low risk trade, scalp some U1.5 for insurance, if early goals look at laying U3.5 or U4.5

1-1 £5
1-2 £4
0-2 £3
O2.5 £20

Maritimo LTD

Saturday's Picks and Trades

Why do I think its going to be a funny old day today......

Referees in the news again I see last weekend, I may have be slightly biased against Man Utd, but If Shelvey's tackle was a red card then Jonny Evans should have also walked at least twice during that game.  Consistency is al the fans want, but it seems a bit like the holy grail at the moment. Steve Kean finally sees sense and walks away, how he stood the personal abuse and lack of backing from the board I do not know, personally I'm glad he has told them to stuff it. Couple of decent games this weekend, why can't Arsenal turn Chelsea over this weekend, Liverpool to get their first win at Carrow Road, and how about a bag full of goals at Reading? and by the way my local team Dunfermline are still progressing really well, very unlucky to lose to a 93rd minute goal against Aberdeen in the week, and are available at 2.1 for today and 3.0 for the league......

The way the golf is going looks like I won't be wasting any sleep watching the climax, the USA have got off to a flyer, and have momentum and the home crowd behind them, it will take a special European performance to pull this back, but stranger things have happened.

Well Lewis Hamilton has finally made the jump, please tell me why the fastest man this season in the the fastest car, which has won 5 races this season, would opt for a car that has just won once in three years? Is it all about the money? Is Jenson really that much of a threat? Has Ross Brawn got something up his sleeve with the Mercedes? Have McLaren finally seen sense and realised that to continue to spend the millions it does on racing, cannot really be justified these day? Or does he just need a change? If Schumacher has finally retired that good luck and thanks, may not have been everybody's favourite at times, but can you fault his focus and want to win?

Nice to see a bit of jumps action today,  although I understand that there is a small flat meeting going on elsewhere in the country today, with some oversized pony being given a run out...(only joking, I do like Frankel).  Crap weather across most of the country tomorrow, so expect going to be all over the place again.

Exercising the advantage that I have over the bookies today, hat is I don't have to get involved in each and every race if I don't feel its right. One track is Heavy, not touching unless something really stands out, and that is not today.  Chester, I don't mind watching but have not really had much success, most horses that i pick out there, seem to do the exact opposite of what I expect to happen.  I have a small itch about Rayhani at Market Rasen today, has the past history to run well, but seems to have been out of sorts recently, is fit and has been turned out pretty quickly again.  A big price but may be worth a quid each way.  Watch for NR's coming out quite late to mess up any frames.

Remember to watch for the results/scores and react appropriately, protect you stakes and you bank. Don't be afraid to take a small red to protect yourself against the possibility of a larger red. Do your research and manage you bank. And a wrong pick doesn't have to mean that it is a losing trade, have a plan...

Back
1.40 Market Rasen - Favours Brave
5.25 Newmarket - Trader Jacks

EW
1.40 Market Rasen - Rayhani
2.10 Market Rasen - Kians Delight
3.00 Newmarket - Chachamaidee
5.05 Market Rasen- Third of the Third

Lay
3.05 Navan - Chasing Shadows
3.55 Market Rasen - Halogen (value lay)

Footy:
Dortmund v Broussia Munchengladbach, great name!!.  Dortmund have won the last couple of matched against BMG at home, and they do like to score goals.  Dangers here are a low score, so if no goals by HT look to start minimising potential losses, 3-1 keeps the bank manager happy, with it still be early in the season this could be a game at half stakes whilst keeping a close eye to scores. Lay off scores as the goals go in to at least recover stake, watch AUQ stick a quid on if gets big enough.
Dortmund Lay £20
U3.5 Lay £25
1-0 £2
2-0 £3
2-1 £3
3-0 £4
3-1 £4

Nantes v Lens LTD
Huddersfield v Watford LTD
Hearts v Killie LTD
Norwich v Lpool Back Liverpool
Nice v Bastia Back O2.5
Bolton v C Palace Back O2.5
Wolves v Sheff Wed Back O2.5
Reading v Newcastle Back O3.5

Good Luck

Sunday Tips - Gambling or Trading?

While yesterday shows the difference between gambling and trading. If you were a gambler you would have been pretty cheesed off( & down a few quid) today, but if you had followed yesterdays results as they came in and had set sensible limits you should have traded yourself out for either a small green or a scratch.

A couple of freakish results shows why you need to have contingency plans and pay attention to what you are doing.  Who would have picked out Barnsley to win 5-0, did you spot Southampton overturning  Villa side leading 1-0? If you did, can I have next weeks lottery numbers.

Horses were a mixed bunch, with NR's not helping, and one that I took out of yesterday was Taayel, very unlucky, got bumped/blocked a couple of times then came steaming through to take the place, will watch for in the near future.  Today sees an interesting issue at Uttoxeter with Lucinda Russell send 2 all the way down from Perth, I personally thing that its for the benefit of Lord Redsgirth, has a decent claimers on-board and if you look at his last run hopefully he would have picked up a couple of pointers on how he should be ridden.

Today seems a decent sports day, hopefully the footy at Anfield matches up to the build up, I would be surprised if both sets of fans do not behave, Rodgers needs a win, and quickly, but as wise as Fergie is, there will be no room for sentiment. So both teams going for the win for all the right reasons, fully expect to see some goals.

Singapore hosts the latest Grand Prix, I have gone for a lay of Hamilton, the price is too short in my view. The track is tight and not many overtaking opportunities, however safety cars are virtually guaranteed and 110% concentration is needed for the full 2 hours, so i believe there should should be some trading opportunities here. Alonso has the experience to get himself out of any trouble, and the heart to fight where needed, but can the car last the full distance, podium price is worth a couple of quid. I think the Red Bull will be out to prove a few things, along with an improving Mercedes, so looking forward to a decent race.

Looking ahead there's a decent midweek card for the football, so something to break up the week with, Man u v Newcastle should be a cracking game, any how good luck what ever you do, but please remeber to protect the bank and have a fall back position.

EW
1.40 Uttoxeter - Momkinzain
3.40 Uttoxeter - Lord Redsgirth
4.45 Gowran Park - Toufan Express

Back
2.10 Uttoexeter - River D'Or
2.30 Plumpton - Khazium
3.00 Plumpton - Defaiothesdream
4.15 Gowran Park - Trading Leather
(possible Yankee, trading as you go)

Lay
2.40 Uttoxeter - Shallow Bay
4.30 Plumpton - Dipity Doo Dah

Footy Trades
Ath Madrid v Valladollid
looking for some goals in this game, Madrid have been some quite prolific scorers so 3-1 would be the dream result. Lay off the scores to play down the red side. Dangers are a low scoring game or an away win. Stats show that most of the goals should come in the 2nd half, so may drip feed the U3.5 lay, and possible take advantage of U4.5 lay, whilst gaining some scalping insurance on the low scores.

Lay Ath Madrid £20
Lay U3.5 £25
1-0 £3
2-0 £4
2-1 £3
3-0 £4
3-1 £5

Back O2.5
Liverpool V Man Utd
TSG v Hannover

LTD
PSV v Feynood
Marsielle v Evian

Both Teams to Score
Aberdeen v Motherwell - Yes

T20/20
England v India lay both teams @ 1.6

F1
Podium Finish - back Alonso
Value Lay - Hamilton to Win

Saturday Picks, before the rain comes

Just a quick couple of lines today, running late and feeling the effects of a nice bottle of red...

Champions League proper got off to a cracking start this week, and what a game the Man City game was, watched the game as a neutral and fell asleep in the first half, but was wide awake for the second half.  And who can fault Joe Hart for his words, his defence certainly need a long hard look at themselves, some of the defending was Sunday League.  Liverpool battered some Young Boys on the Thursday, I hear the police are investigating!!!

Anybody catch the documentary on Liverpool on C5, very informative and time will tell either a PR masterpiece by the American owners, or a silly mistake by Rodgers. Thought Gerard and Lieva came over quite well, with subtitles needed for Carragher.

F1 back underway this weekend, the focus seems to be around Hamilton and where is he driving next year, perhaps clarity after this weekend. Expecting Red Bll to come back into contention this weekend with the tight track, with McLaren keeping up the challenge.  Unfortunately I don't think Ferrari may struggle to maintain a challenge throughout the whole race, (cue Alonso win!!)

T20/20 underway, good game this afternoon with Aust v WI, expecting some fluctuations on the odds, danger will be early wickets, but a lay of 1.6 on each side going in.

Some horrible rain this weekend forecast, so be careful all round, i see some of the race courses have declared heavy going, and the NRs are again starting to come, so take care. In the Ayr Gold Cup my £2 is on Our Jonathan.

Any how good luck for today, if I get some time today going to have a look ahead at the Ryder Cup

Back
2.05 Newbury - Artic Cosmos
2.10 Newmarket - Graphic Guest
2.30 Listowel - Reine Angevine

EW
1.55 Catterick - Rust
2.35 Newbury - Taayel
3.35 Listowel - Littletown Lass

Lay
2.30 Catterick - Authentication
2.30 Listowel - Enchanted Forest
3.20 Newmarket - Infintum

Back to Lay
2.20 Ayr - Spinatrix
2.30 Catterick - Dr Irv
3.30 Ayr - Pintura

Football
Birmingham v Barnsley
Brum seemed to have steadied the ship after an iffy start, Barsnley just can't keep a clean sheet at the moment.
Lay Birmingham Match Odds £25
1-0 £3
2-0 £5
2-1 £5
3-0 £4
3-1 £4
Dangers are AUQ, and 3-2 so maybe a small back as the match goes on, very early goals could make things a little uncomfortable, if the game is a draw or Barnsley win then stake recovered on the lay.

Lay:
Southampton, Reading, Charlton, Colchester, Dundee

Lay the Draw
Chelsea v Stoke
Hamburg v Dortmund

Sunday's Winners, hopefully

Not too bad a day yesterday with some of the horses doing the business, the EW double started well with the first leg coming in at 5/1, so gave us plenty to lay off for the 2nd leg, and boy did we need it, I think the horse thought it was running in an egg and spoon race not a horse race. All the lays came in as well so a nice bit of green yesterday. Camelot ran well, but my personal opinion is that young Joseph actually lost the race by trying to go up the inside, he was against experienced jockeys in a top class race, they were not going to give him an inch, y the time he got himself out of trouble Encke had already gone up in the gears and got the run on him and it would have taken a wonder horse to catch him.

The footy didn't do too bad either, and the beauty of trading is that you don't need to forecast the correct team to win, as you can jump around and protect any outlays you may have made. Another lesson yesterday was the importance of watching of live games and trading. The Norwich game showed that goals were going to be few and far between, so scalping the U1.5 was made a bit more comfortable.  Also anybody watching the Liverpool game that did not lay Sunderland when they went ahead need to ask themselves some questions.  Liverpool were so much in the ascendancy, and when Sunderland went ahead against the run of play their odds went down to below the 2.0 mark, so a fairly cheap lay was to be had.

Interesting game at Reading today, but one I am staying out of, i like AVB, and he has the talent to become a good manager, but he does have his problems with lack of depth in the squad.  Reading are unbeaten in their last 11 home games but they do leave themselves wide open, so the chances will be their for both teams. may leave it until HT and score dependent may get involved.

Champions League proper underway this week, so something to get the teeth into. Couple of bets to keep an eye on: Top goalscorer: Mario Mandzukic, Carlos Tevex, Thomas Muller, all bug prices and most bookies offering EW.  Outsiders for the final: PSG , Zenith St Petersburgh, both have money, decent draws and experienced players.

Todays thoughts below, stake retrival as always is 1st goal, if youu need to give some back to the bookies to look after the bank, then do so, it will always be there tomorrow,

Back
2.20 Listowel - Top Man Micheal
4.40 Bath - Miracle Maid
5.40 Bath - Waspy

EW
2.10 Bath - Uncle Rodger
2.40 Bath - Authoritarian

Lay
4.00 Ffos Las - Asphan Sam
4.10 Bath - James Pollard

Back to Lay/IR Trade
2.20 Listowel - Top Man Micheal
3.10 Bath - Tregereth
4.10 Bath - Iquacu
5.10 Bath - Lucky Diva

Football Trades
Wolves v Leicester:
no clean sheet from Wolves so far this season, & Leic decidedly dodgy start, personally think this has draw written about it. Starting with the following, but need to keep an eye to the match.  Don't forget scalp if you can to get some insurance in the bank:
1-0 £3
0-1 £3
1-1 £5
2-2 £5

Roma v Bologna/Ath Madrid v Rayo Valecano
if draw gets down to 3.5 then LTD

Pescara v Samdoria
Lay Pescara

Napoli v Parma
If Parma take the lead then lay Parma
or
1-0 £5
2-0 £5
1-1 £3
O2.5 £20
Lay off each score as the goals go in. Keep an eye on match stats if 0-0 at HT and goals look likely then stay in, if not think about taking a small red to minimise losses.

Saturdays thoughts & tips

Well that's me back from a nice weeks break in Italy, very relaxing and some great company (including the wife). whilst away I found another nationality of people who managed to annoy me more that i thought possible. In the past the French have wound me no end of times to the point that I now refuse to go to Paris, but as of this week the Koreans are very quickly catching them up. Where ever I looked they were there, I can be impatient at times but some of these people took it to the point of utter rudeness. A lot of it was small stuff, but put together didn't half wind me up, perhaps I'm just getting old.

I caught the closing ceremony of the Paralympics whilst away and t was interesting to hear the Italians view of the coverage given to the event by the British media, as well as the hosting of the whole Olympic event by GB, nothing but compliments coming from our European neighbours on a job well done.

I see that Andy Murray is going walk about in his local town tomorrow, it did make me smile, anybody that knows Dunblane will know that the walk should only take 5 minutes from one end to the other.

Glad to see that the correct result has finally come out regarding Hillsborough, what upsets me most is the fact that 41 people could have possibly been saved. 41 people who went to see a football match and who should have came home. The other thing that concerns me is why the cover up? Who authorised/instigated it, they are the people who should be held to account, I hope the families get everything they ask for.

Today the football gets back into full swing after a couple of lack lustre internationals (lets not mention the Wales result!!). Should see some patterns start to emerge over the next cuple of weeks as the  squads and managers settle down.  The flat season draws towards its close with the St Ledger today, everbody seems to be all over Camelot, but keep an eye on Guarantee, interesting prospect.

Also playing tonight is Newport v Cardiff, always a good local rugby fixture, one of the many good Rugby Union games on over the weekend.

I also see Prince Harry is a little bit peeved with Kate, for stealing his limelight!! Who's next Philip mooning off the palace balcony ... :-)

Anyway some thoughts below, quite a few NRs already showing up, so be careful. Don't forget first aim is always stake retrieval.

Back
3.00 Curragh - Wexford Opera (possible fcast with Orator)
3.30 Bath - Dancing Primo
3.30 Curragh - Uleavemebreathless
8.20 Kempton - If So

EW Double
2.15 Bath - Alcando
5.10 Bath Arch Event

Lay
3.50 Newcastle - Sabore
4.25 Newcastle - Military Call
4.55 Newcastle - Seven Veils

Place Lay
2.35 Newcastle - Talent Scout

Back to Lay/Trade IR
2.50 Bath - Linkable
3.55 Chester - Mandy Layla
5.25 Newcastle - Ypres
6.50 Kempton - My Mate Jake
8.20 Kempton - Blue Nova


Football Trades
Single: Back Celtic far too big  big at 1.4
Single: Back Hearts, too big at 2.7

Norwich v West Ham.
5 of last 6 games have been drawn, personally expecting a low scoring game, so a low risk trade:
0-0 £2
1-1 £5
2-0 £2
O2.5 £15
Scalp 0-0/U1.5, if necessary wait until O2.5 reaches 2.0 then place.

Fulham v West Brom
West Ham started well, only losing to Man City & Arsenal in last 11 games, Fulham have been a bit hit and miss, and in my view are false favourites. Could well be a couple of goals in this game
O2.5 £20
1-1 £5
0-2 £2
0-0 £3
Lay U3.5 £10, lay another £10 at 1.2
Scalp U1.5 for some insurance.

Sunday Choices & Tips

Apologies for no post on Saturday, feeling decidely under the weather, and i can't even blame the beer or wine. Rough as a badgers ass is an understatement. Perhaps it was the realisation of finishing work for a couple of weeks, off to the sunny side of Italy for a couple of days for a well earned rest.

Paralympics are underway, and what a breathe of fresh air, quite humbling sat on on a couch thinking how the heck do they do that.  Really impressed not only with determination and resiliency, but also with skill and aptitude  hopefully go a long way to change some small minded views that people have of those who are not 'main stream'

This week saw the closure of the transfer window, many shocks? I don't think so. personally disappointed to see Carroll leave Liverpool, I thought he had something to prove and that Rodgers needs a plan B, time will tell. The fact that nobody came into replace him was disappointing, and is this the money men saying balance the books, King Kenny spent this years money last year.....  Interesting to see Fergie saying he was spending no more due to UEFA fair play rules, some common sense kicking in? Everton brought in a few players, but was are they any better that present, think it was more of a case of getting some depth to a thin squad. AVB appears to have had a falling out at White Hart lane already, looks like a battle of wills going on down there!!  I wasn't too positive about my local side Dunfermline at the beginning of the season, but by all accounts things are looking up, young squad settling in playing good attacking football with experienced manager, perhaps the 3.75 to win the league may not be too bad a price.

In the cricket, my personal feelings are that Cooke has been handed a poisoned chalice, the expectation is there now that England will win all their games, did Strauss see the writing on the wall, were KP's comments a bit too close for comfort? Best of luck to Cooke, think he'll need it.

F1 back underway today, with Button being pretty impressive, if he gets away clean good posibbility that the race will be his for the taking, laying the leader at 1.78 after the first 2 laps. and trading from  there.

Only a couple of races today, and expecting a few non runners still to come out, so be careful.

Lays
2.00 Folkestone - Gazboolou (Watch for market support)
3.00 Folkestone - Kingswinford
3.30 Folkestone - Paradise Spectre
3.40 Newton Abbot - Take of Shocs (Watch for market support)

Backs
4.30 Folkestone - Runaway Girl
5.00 Folkestone - Albaspina

Footy Trade
Recent history shows a tight game between these two, but both can score freely.  Look to scalp either the 0-0/U1.5.
Napoli v Fiorentina
1-1 £5
2-2 £3
0-2 £2
O2.5 £25
U1.5 £5

Sunday's Chosen Few

Well I hope you managed to get on yesterdays Ebor winner, Willing Foe, nice little winner at 12/1, a bit bigger on the exchanges.  I think the weather caught a few out yesterday, with the heavy showers messing up plans and causing a temp disturbance to the going. one f the lays got a little to high for my liking. And the footy trade came through nicely.  Enjoyed the cricket yesterday with the 2 underdogs making it through to the final.  a good game, a  nice green from some decent trading, went along with the trade run by the guys over at http://www.sportstradingedge.com very enjoyable.  Couple of interesting scores coming in from the premiership, with Swansea cracking on with another decent display, Chelsea carry on ploughing through, nice to see Torres coming back to his best. De Gea must be giving Fergie nightmares, but he needs to be careful he will cost them points.  Overall a good green day.

Sunday sees loads of footy on show from the continent, so may have a little dabble when the markets settle, Looking forward to Liverpool v Man City this afternoon bit of quality racing at the Curragh and Goodwood, bit of golf on as well.  Just up the road from me i can hear the drone of the British Touring cars, so am tempted to pop up and have a look, always a good day out. The wife seems to have some plans for me for housework, mmm we'll see... And if i do get bored i can always watch Celebrity Big Brother!!!

Interesting week ahead, we've already lost Cartmel tomorrow, and I looking at the forecast I think a few more will follow. This week also sees the closure of the transfer window; will Dempsey make it to Liverpool, can Spurs tempt anybody to join them, can Everton hold off selling any players, will Mancini get his new squad, and will Michael Owen ever kick a premiership ball again, lets see who has the biggest balls, and biggest bank balance.

Watch out for NRs messing up the cards today, and don't forget, 1s goal is stake recovery, then the winnings.

Backs
2.45 Goodwood - Commend
4.30 Goodwood - Geanie mac
5.30 Cork - Clara Bel La

EW Double
3.10 Curragh - Inexile
4.50 Yarmouth - The Ducking Stool

Lays
2.30 Yarmouth - Warden Bond
4.55 Curragh - Susiescott

Footy Trade
Stoke v Aresnal
Has the potential to be a tight game, Stoke can be hard to beat, and what fire power have arsenal got now RVP is away. looking to scalp 0-0/U1.5 for insurance. May look at 2-2 if over 30s

1-1 £5
0-2 £2
1-2 £3
U1.5 £5
O2.5 £20

Beverley Ratings:

1.50 Beverley	Sunnyside Tom (IRE)	14%		4.05 Beverley	Party Line	19%
	Brocklebank (IRE)	11%			Granston (IRE)	15%
	Violent Velocity (IRE)	11%			Carragold	13%
	West End Lad	11%			Tribal Myth (IRE)	12%
	Muftarres (IRE)	10%			Meetings Man (IRE)	11%
	Fremen (USA)	9%			Coax	10%
	Eeny Mac (IRE)	8%			High Five Society	7%
	Byronic Hero	7%			Maybeme	7%
	Fathsta (IRE)	7%			Pinotage	5%
	Tislaam (IRE)	7%
	Above Standard (IRE)	3%		4.40 Beverley	Penang Pegasus	28%
	Freda's Rose (IRE)	3%			Kathleensluckylad (IRE)	19%
	Benidorm	0%			Mad For Fun (IRE)	16%
	Lady Oz (IRE)	0%			Bollin Tommy	8%
					Yojojo (IRE)	8%
2.20 Beverley	Mister Marcasite	26%			Justine Time (IRE)	7%
	Notional Demand	24%			Mexican Wave	6%
	Chant (IRE)	19%			Hikma (USA)	4%
	Grey Blue (IRE)	15%			Champagne Valley	3%
	Attansky (IRE)	7%			Hawkino (IRE)	0%
	Chloe's Image	2%			Only A Round (IRE)	0%
	Silk Scarf (IRE)	2%			Medecis Mountain	0%
	Star Of Broadway	2%			Certainly Elusive (IRE)	0%
	Sad But True (IRE)	2%
				5.10 Beverley	Aubrietia	20%
2.55 Beverley	Shrimper Roo	24%			Holy Angel (IRE)	18%
	Dark Opal (IRE)	20%			Made In The Shade	15%
	Rhagori Aur	18%			Koolgreycat (IRE)	11%
	Lucky Lodge	10%			First Fast Now (IRE)	11%
	Sandsend (IRE)	10%			Wake Up Sioux (IRE)	9%
	Gold Beau (FR)	9%			Dartrix	7%
	Star Up In The Sky (USA)	5%			Stans Deelyte	4%
	Fantasy Invader (IRE)	3%			Cataract	3%
					Essexvale (IRE)	2%
3.30 Beverley	Ypres	28%
	Hadrians Rule (IRE)	18%
	Emily Hall	14%
	Maltease Ah	12%
	Pavers Star	10%
	Headstight (IRE)	10%
	Not Bad For A Boy (IRE)	6%
	Clubland (IRE)	3%
	Majestic Angel (IRE)	0%